WDS - Tech Analysis thread, page-8

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts, in its base case, oil demand to peak at 110 million barrels a day by 2034. In a scenario with slower EV adoption, oil demand could keep increasing towards 113 million barrels a day by 2040.When will demand for gasoline peak?The thirst for oil will be driven by increased demand for petrochemicals and specialized refined products such as jet fuel, rather than gasoline for automobiles. Petrochemicals are produced from petroleum or natural gas and are used in everything from plastics to soaps.“Among oil products, we expect gasoline demand to peak around 2028, but petrochemical demand growth could more than offset the gasoline demand decline through 2040,” Bhandari and Cai write.Once oil demand peaks in about 2034, it will probably begin a moderate decline with a CAGR of 0.3% till 2040. Our researchers predict that China will see growing demand for oil until late 2020s.The longer horizon to peak oil demand in part reflects a slower adoption rate for EVs. European countries have cut subsidies, and price competition has put pressure on automaker profits, slowing EV investment on the continent. Technical issues, affordability, charging infrastructure, resale value, and policy uncertainty around elections in the US and Europe are all contributing to sluggish EV sales.“The slow adoption makes a difference, not just in terms of the year when it peaks, but the level where we will be in year 2040,” Bhandari and Cai write.