Hi David 25. Your post reads as a shorting justification. In...

Hi David 25.

Your post reads as a shorting justification. In March 2025, 10% of 'net profit' is far too conservative in this market for an evaluation of MRE in ground and would relate the less certain MRE category, such as JORC Indicated. Where there is limited hedge book of the merged entity, spot price margin over ASIC is a far better indicator of company value I'd argue. Also, in order to determine the EV/ResOz, one needs to differentiate the sub-elements of the MRE, as they are valued very differently for their level of certainty in commercial realisation, viz (highest to lowest):
(i) Proven & Probable (P&P);
(ii) Measured & Indicated (M&I); and
(iii) inferred (Inf).

I'd say at US$3,000/oz spot / A$4,750/oz, and a fwd merged ASIC of say A$1,600/oz (conservative), resulting in a price / all-in cost margin of A$3,150/oz today, then on that basis you'd now be looking at EV/MRE elements of:
* A$315 per ounce Inferred (using your figure of 10% of spot margin);
* A$788 per ounce for M&I (25%). Note: SPR has 2.16 million oz in this category alone; &
* A$1575 per ounce for P&P (50%).

So, my view A$200/oz for the combined MRE a materially low metric for evaluating the pro-forma merged entity given the amount of M&I resource SPR is delivering into the merger.