@david Like your share price enthusiasm, but if I can offer a less bullish perspective....
We currently have a $2.65 share price and circa $3.1bn market cap, so $10 share price implies a circa $11.7bn market cap.
RMS currently generating about 300,000oz annual production. So, as a starting point and ignoring hedging, if gold goes to US$4,000/oz, we are talking +US$1,200 or about AU$1,920/oz additional margin in the short term, which adds a further $570m of pre-tax cash flow or probably a further $400m of NPAT - taking us to circa $750m as a prospective FY26 NPAT.
Average sector PE is sitting around 9.5x FY25 estimated earnings which takes us to a possible market cap of circa $7.1bn. Add in another $1.5bn for cash and SPR (I'm assuming that there will be a dividend payment in there as well, so drawing down on some of their impressive cash balance) and we are at circa $8.6bn market cap or about $7.30 per share.
So, if we do see US$4,000 gold, then certainly RMS has a good way to run, but $10 may be a stretch.
Flipside, at current market cap and current price of gold, I think we are undercooked relative to peers. FY25 is looking like a circa $370m NPAT (at 9.5x PE = $3.5bn) which is shy of our current market cap. Allowing for cash, bullion and (post-tax value of) SPR, if we were to re-rate closer to the peer average, in my opinion we should be currently sitting closer to a $4.2bn market cap and circa $3.50 share price.
Obviously this is not investment advice, but just punching some numbers around for this debate.
RMS Price at posting:
$2.64 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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