"The fear of war has pushed it up, but war itself is a downer on oil and the economy. Investigate Sadam invasion of Kuwait - oil fell after the event (from what I recall)."
I investigated this point further and got some clarity. Once Iraq invaded Kuwait, the prices did move higher.
Invasion of Kuwait - Wikipedia
On the build-up of forces on the border the prices of oil started pushing up. After invasion, they went up another $10 - about 25-30%.
Prices peaked and then returned to normalcy prior to the global coalition attacking Iraqi forces.
In 2003 during the Iraq war, there was a big push up in oil prices. Prices returned to pre-war prices but continued up in parallel to the global share markets.
When there is freely available money available, you will see commodity prices increase. The fear of war is a factor that pushes but once the event occurs, it has a drop.
XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-455
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