CAP 6.00% 9.4¢ carpentaria resources ltd


  1. 1,461 Posts.
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    Hi Redned

    I have really enjoyed reading your weekend posts about your younger investment live! Sounds like you had a blast. Hope I can replicate that . Not that young anymore unfortunately, hitting the big 40 within 6 weeks.

    Can I ask you where your $54 per ton comes from? That must be MGT? CAP has a $25 62% equivalent CFR China rate, so quite a bit lower. I have had a bit more of a look into the PFS following my comments that it was in for a fall on the morning of the PFS and I believe there are many layers of issues with MGT. I honestly very much doubt there will ever be a mine there and it most certainly doesn't stack up to the Hawson's project and has little chance of coming close to the returns CAP potentially could bring. I would be happy to give you my full thoughts if you are interested. I have refrained from posting anything on the MGT thread as it is clear they have a little club of "true believers" on the HC that don't want to hear anything but positive news in regards to MGT.

    In terms of the IO price and where it is going, it looks to me it has been notoriously hard to predict by anyone! It does seems many annalists have been overly bearish in the recent past. Having said that its not crazy long ago that IO traded at a steady USD $20 per ton which was from memory up until the early 2000's. Even adjusted for inflation that is a much lower price then we see today.
    The only way it will get back to that is if demand goes (much) lower. I don't know what will happen in that regard but I did find the following podcast illuminating.

    How iron ore welds China to Australia - The Signal - ABC Radio

    It does give some perspective about particularly Chinese demand and where it might be heading now that China would love to cut out Australian IO. I certainly hope IO prices will stay high and 70% IO is simply a pretty unique product so I have little worries about CAP but it has made me a bit more cautious in terms of other IO plays.

    Again great posts and always good to bounce some ideas with other investors I think.
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