GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Will the price hold, page-2

  1. 25,374 Posts.
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    Yes Alec fra
    the Kingsgate chart is a beauty

    presently watching the POG recovery
    and hope CNT does it for me today as they were under a little pressure at close,

    This post is for US open on 09
    May 8th, 2002

    For markets of May 9





    CLOSES
    JUN GOLD 308.50
    MAY SILVER 4.575
    JUL PLAT 528.70


    INDICATIVE LEASE RATES (based on 30 day maturities)
    GOLD 0.25% / 0.75%
    SILVER 1.00% / 2.00%
    PLATINUM 2.00% / 7.00%


    General Comments:

    The gold market today was bludgeoned by as much negative news as one could possibly conceive, and yet, it only fell by about $3.40. The DJIA was up over 300 points as stocks rocketed upward, lending a negative influence to gold. The USD was SHARPLY higher today as the Euro, Swiss Franc, and the British Pound had one of their worst days recently, dampening the market expectations that a cheaper USD would help gold demand, another negative influence. And furthermore, the consummate liar and terrorist Yassir Arafat, then declared that he would constrain any further terrorist attacks on Israel, another negative influence.


    While I do try to restrain from political analysis, I did find it fascinating that Yassir Arafat has now sealed his fate and is in a truly uncompromising position. If he can indeed stop the suicide bombing and the terrorist attacks, then he is proven as the architect of terror and thus is unworthy of any role in the political structure. If he cannot stop the terrorism, then he is proven to be powerless and worthless, again debilitating his public and political significance.

    This commentary has been stating for almost a year that it is not the exogenous market influences that truly make this gold market a bull, but it is the actions of the producers that will propel gold prices higher. Barrick Gold, which has heretofore been the most aggressive hedgers and forward sellers of gold, announced today that it is cutting back on its former programs and will repurchase about 3 million ounces of gold over the next year and will simplify its already obtuse and opaque hedge book so investors can better understand its financial machinations. Now please understand that 3 million ounces over this year is not much when one considers that at the end of the first quarter of this year, it had 18 million ounces pledged for sale, in one way or another. When the arch-enemy of those who believe that gold producers should remain unhedged begins to admit that the future of gold prices looks promising, that indeed is a victory for the gold bulls

    While many gold bulls consider the ECB to be opposed to their cause, there was a most bullish comment on gold by Christian Noyer, Vice President of ECB, to quote "What governments receive from the national Central Banks are interest payments, NOT the assets. It is widely accepted among Central Bankers that gold is an important reserve asset and sales can only be undertaken in a form which would not disrupt the markets". Such a statement goes a long way to alleviate concerns that the European Central Bank will sell their gold reserves in a profligate manner. Between this comment and the announcement by Barrick, gold was supported early in the day.

    If there is one man in the industry that I greatly respect, it is Chris Thompson, Chairman of Gold Fields, of South Africa. In a long interview with theminingweb.co.za, he discusses what he sees as the pressing needs of the World Gold Council, and how they can play a part in the promotion of gold. He completely understands what few in the market can see, that the promotion of gold as an investment, rather than just an adornment as jewelry, is imperative to the health of gold coming into the future. I strongly recommend reading this entire interview.

    Silver was down today, in sympathy with gold today, as old and well acknowledged and respected technical resistance levels continued to present obstacles to any higher prices. We did get into the low $4.60's allowing discretionary accounts of this firm to sell a little bit. Silver is simply shadowing gold and ignoring positive influences from the industrial metals markets, which have been rising of late. It remains weak and deserves to be sold on any rally.

    Platinum and palladium were both higher today as the stock markets rallied, providing some hope that greater industrial demand will re-emerge. Discretionary accounts of the firm are long both platinum and palladium at present and we look for higher levels.

    There has been much talk among traders in the market about J.P. Morgan this past few days. It would appear that Mr. Dinsa Mehta, formerly their Chief Precious Metals and Commodity Analyst, has "retired". As this gentleman was responsible for approving many of the obviously self-enriching and obviously obfuscated trades done with Enron by an affiliate of J.P. Morgan, such a "retirement" (giggle....) is not unexpected. If there is one universal prerogative of large corporations, it is that when something bad happens, SOMEONE MUST DIE. And Mr. Dinsa appears to be the victim.

    There are also rumors that this same firm was a MAJOR borrower of silver in the shorter-term periods over the last few days. Perhaps they are just cleaning up some problems. But don't expect anything really significant.

    The Bullish Consensus as of April 30th:


    Gold 74% from 73% as of April 23rd
    Silver 59% from 60%
    Platinum 65% from 71%


    While these numbers on the high side, they do indeed leave room for higher price levels as the markets are not yet overbought.



 
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