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DLS 69.0¢

'when the world ends it will look like this'

  1. DSD

    15,757 Posts.

    World famous travel writer Paul Theroux has written his last book titled 'The last train to Zona Verde: My ultimate African Safari'. In an attempt to complement his best seller re an extended train trip through East Africa, Theroux books a trip from Cape town to travel North through West Africa. In short it becomes a disaster once he crosses the border into Angola.

    Lucky to not die himself Theroux reflects how all 3 people he stayed with once leaving Namibia (incl an Aussie) were killed before he had his book published! The most famous quote in the book is: "This is what it will look like when the world ends". The observation is made by an Angolan Academic with whom Theroux links up with. The description of everyday life in Angola is truly a scene from hell.

    So what has this to do with DLS? Angola depends on 80% of its revenue from its huge oil deposits. The collapse in POO has meant they are pumping every possible minute to attempt to compensate for lower price. They are not alone. Nigeria and most W.African producers plus Venezuela are facing massive problems. Can pumping more oil solve their poverty, injustice, disparity between rich and poor. In short it won't. Only a strong leap in POO can bring any relief. Is that likely? I think oil can reach 55-65 range within a few months. IMO most analysts focus on demand, and not enough on fact that many producers are already pumping every possible drop, and a hiccup at just a couple of locations can impact supply without the others being able to pick up the slack.

    Oil likely to move around sharply over next few weeks. Hard to know when to jump in and out but fortunes will be made and lost. Stick with those oilers with least debt and least affected by price collapse.

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