Before Turnbull was removed LNP where polling 49% however...

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    Before Turnbull was removed LNP where polling 49% however internal polling of 20 marginal seats had LNP on 52%

    Since then LNP polling has got worse and they no longer have a majority, so had not Turnbull not been removed they would still have a majority and as such "likely" to be in a better position even if polls had them on 49%.

    As for how many polls LNP where behind, it's worth considering how far behind they where.

    Under Abbott LNP polling got as low as 39% 2pp and mostly polled in the low 40's, under Turnbull the worse poll was 46% 2pp at the beginning of last year and steadily improved through out the year.
 
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