GTP 0.00% 12.0¢ great southern limited

what now. for middle et al

  1. 10,543 Posts.
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    Hi Middle/molonski and all gtp / forestry stock holders.

    As you have probably noticed (LOL) I have studiously avoided posting on these stocks since I got flamed last year.

    I trust you have done well and it is my contention that you are sitting on stocks that should be seriously regarded as longterm holds. If I am not mistaken, the really serious gains lie ahead.

    Lets take GTP as an example.

    Middle has given a great synopsis of some of the great reasons to buy GTP right now presuming you are not chart driven. Of course in a stock trending up and if you are a buy and hold investor then anytime is a good time to buy.

    For the record I have said that I expect GTP will look for $1.32 before having a rest on this current run.

    Remember though that that final leg may be driven by a dividend announcement and the subsequent retreat by going ex dividend.

    I haven't looked to see yet but it can safely be assumed that GTP's nta will have advanced comfortably from the previous 94c per share. I seriously doubt we will be seeing sub nta share prices in this stock again anytime soon.

    Remember also that GTP already has a very substantial pool of franking credits - and will now have more. It was attempting to hand half of those back to shareholders tht was the sourve of last years 30c special divodend. No doubt management may well look to try some way of dispursing more (not the same way as last time guys, please!!!!)

    I expect technically that GTP will flirt around with $1.32 for a while. Then a break through there will indicate $1.84 then $2.66 as subsequent targets.

    Most likely TIM will continue its longterm habit of closely tracking GTP.

    Also watch FEA. I have long been convinced that this stock exists merely to be a meal for another larger player in consolidation. As previously stated I do not see this stock being sold for anything much under nta which when last sighted was in the order of 39c. That is still a pretty hefty premium to current prices, yes?

    APL has a life of its own. I am absolutely livid for having ridden the first rise from 12 to 18c thencalled 8c as a buy and not bought. Please do not mention APL again in my vicinity, lol.

    One final one to keep an eye on is AGW. AGW is currently on life support in administration after the NAB pulled its financing package in the dying days of June with some $10 million worth of tree units signed up. I suspect that what the NAB did is in fact an absolute scandal because of course if the NAB was moving simply to limit its exposure to the industry rather than reacting to any internal credit issues with AGW itself then they have serverely harmed a business for nothing more than administrative purposes. It all looks mighty suspect to me.

    However, the thing to keep an eye on is that AGW was purportedly well advanced in negotiations with an unlisted NSW based forestry group to effect a merger - effectively allowing the other company a backdoor listing, producing a substantially larger company and , I am told, strong synergies in skills.

    I noticed the voluntary administrator was advertising for expressions of interest closing 1st August and have no doubt that the NSW's groups interest would not have diminished with the prospect of the AGW listing at risk.

    Should this company return with a merger tucked away under its belt then one would be well advised I suspect to run the ruler over it pronto.

    Cheers all.

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