XJO 1.63% 5,755.7 s&p/asx 200

wednesday wobbly boots

  1. 4,960 Posts.
    Morning Peeps,

    Almost Chrissy!!! Yaaaaaaaaaay!

    Go Sant Go Santa get the gifts on... LOL ahem

    Thx to Newry's early morning thoughts and observations, I have an expectation that there well might be some upside to capture, based on momentum from the rise overnight... however, I am seeing some other stuff as per below...

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    Note, the little charts can be clicke on in this post to display a larger version... either click direct or right-click and select open in new window or open in new tab to display charts while reading the post

    Although the futures are significantly up from where they started in the night session, thanks to some nice upward movement in Europe and the US, the current status of the intraday charts has me looking at the prospects of going short some time during the Australian day session...

    'Tis early yet, and there is an expectation that initially our market could see some exuberance over the overnight rise.

    However here's the first hint that a short may be the go... The Hourly:




    'Tis all about the ellipsed pattern on the MACD MAVs highlighted by the Green Ellipse.

    Not quite ready to go yet, as price is still bounceing off the 13 period Moving average, however, at least in the short term, based on the MACD moving averages, we have both a crossover and divergence to price...

    A quick squizz at the stochastic also show divergence to the latest peak in price, though the current level of the signal line could see a bounce.

    One tiny little signal like this though is not necessarily enough to bet the farm though... However lower timespans are also giving off a few hints that downside of some value may be in the offing.

    30 minute chart:

    (Note prices are changing from chart to chart as I am capturing them during a live session)




    A few things to note here, again supporting potential downside:
    First the stochastics on the lower indicator pane are showing marked divergence for the last two peaks, highlighted by the red arrows.

    on the MACD divergence to price has occurred since last thursday's session, and divergence to price via the MACD Moving averages is also well marked for the last two peaks.

    On this chart I have the potential downsde marked roughly by the blue dotted horizontal segment, the area suggested by targetting price via the MACD Histograms.

    Price itself is currently toying with the 21 period moving average.
    Waiting here for a decisive close below the 21 period MA to be confidant of a short on this timespan... whilst typing price has ducked below and then popped back up above, so still not a definitive signal.

    Moving down to a lower timespan.

    Ten minutes...




    orright... the night session for the SPI has just closed so there wont be too much jumping around of price here...

    Divergence to price on the MACD histograms and Moving averages is quite marked here.

    a tighter target, based on the histograms is shown by the Green Cross hairs.

    Note that price as definitively broken the 21 period moving average and is currently closed below...

    Note the highlighted gaps in the current run up (Blue arrows).

    As sweet as this may appear as a go short signal here, some caution must apply due to the time, that is, close of the night session, and bearing in mind that the futures are actually markedly up since the night session started. Some exhuberance to carry through with market open excitement at the overnight rise can be expected.

    It would be rather neat if the market opened with a gap up, as that could well be a nice shorting opportunity to get the day under way... as well, a third peak in price here would be significant particularly if we got a drop and a reclose of price below the 21 period moving average afterwards.

    So, in summary, a bit of an expectation of initial upside, purely due to excitement at the overnight rise.

    Should this result in a gap up on open, then I will be making the effort to short the gap, with the potential of further downside ocurring if price breaks the 21 period moving average afterwards.

    Safe Trading alll y'all.

    ;)
 
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