VRL 0.80% $3.72 village roadshow limited

*** warning: matrix a flop? ***, page-32

  1. 6,389 Posts.

    Some of your bullish posts about how well VRLPA is going to do:

    Your predictions are a pile of crap.


    "Yay, I'm with you 100%! I've got tons of VRLPA as well and am just waiting for the price to correct to normal valuation price."

    "P/E is so low at the moment they are they buy of the decade! Also if they flog off the cinemas in UK the chance of them cancelling the div is decreased (not that it matters that much either way, but the market seems to hate companys that cancel divs)"


    "G'Day Alan,

    I'm going for $3 on the prefs

    I think $2 to $2.50 is correct value so will sell at $3



    "G'Day Sushi,

    A share should be valued using a Discount Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, and this is what I use - in my experience the price will always gravitate back towards it DCF value but it can take a LONG time - I'm confident they will get to $2.50 - will be surprised if they hit $3 and will sell.



    "I would say UK deal on the way and people are speculating that the div has a greater chance of getting paid (not that it really makes a diff either way as the shares are still a bargain whether div is paid or not - the market behaves in wierd and wonderful ways!)




    Just like everyone else around you seem to focus on the negative aspects of village shares and forget to mention the positives. In this way you are following the herd which is the most common error that an investor can make, but unfortunately one that most people do make. I am amazed at the strength of the herd - I have liked VRLPA for a while now and I talk to people about it quite a bit and everyone always says the same things - 'the kirbys are causing the share price to go down, don't trust them' and then if I say what about the fact that the PE on the prefs is about 4 and it looks like profits are going to at least be the same as in previous year people just don't understand or care - it is much easier just to accept what the herd says.

    I'll briefly mention some positives about village:
    1. The PE ratio of Village prefs is about 4 which if you ask anyone means 'ultra good value' - off the top of my head this is probably the best P/E ratio of any stock on the market.
    2. The PE ratio of Village normal shares is about 8 which is 'great value'
    3. Profit should be the same if not higher than last year (normally you would expect a stock with such a low PE to have declining profits and be in a declining industry)
    4. This year all cinemas are recording record attendances due to good films.
    5. Same goes for video and dvd distribution
    6. This looks set to continue for at least another year with more harry's, lord of rings, matrix 2 and 3.

    If I have not doubled by $$ on village prefs by the end of 2004 I will be amazed.



    "Sushi...um....'prefs do not participate in the earnings of a company'???? what do you think dividends are?? the prefs get a dividend in preference to the normal shares. Please check your facts before posting. Thanks. Ed."

    Lets see no dividend and the prefs at 74 cents. Yep they looked like a real bargain....

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