waiting for the war rally?

  1. 10,605 Posts.
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    What if it never comes?

    For some reason it seems to be becoming folk-lore that all that is required for the markets to shrug off the current blues is for George Jnr to push the button on Iraq.

    Far be it for me to disagree but whilst there might be some sort of brief rally I stronglky doubt that such an event will 'mark the commencement of a ten year bull market in equities' such as occured when US troops landed in Kuwait.

    For one thing the US was already ten years strongly into a bull equities market which had only been tempered by the Kuwaiti expansionism of Hussein.

    That is clear not the case now and the Dow and other indices have been in freefall for nearly two years.

    Further, the US economy is in a parlous state which will not be improved by immediate military outlays and any Iraqi rebuilding costs.

    In other words the only thing that the immenent attack may bring about is the final bottoming of gold for this retracement (and share prices with it) before the economic realities of the US and global ecomomy reassert themselves potentially delivering the next major series of lows in equity prices and the long awaited run in gold.

    Then again I could be completely wrong, LOL!

    Its clearly way past my bedtime.

    Anyone else have any thoughts?
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