VIL 0.00% 1.6¢ verus investments limited

vil & ggp - perplexed but watching closely

  1. 1,364 Posts.
    One thing I have learnt over the years the hard way is: 'Never stand in the way of a freight train' (figuretively speaking of course)

    VIL & GGP both set up very nicely for runs through 4.5 and 5.5 respectively, but failed to fire up at the critical moments.

    Although I live breath and follow the charts, I will always respect the market when it does not offer confirmation or acts against my anticipated outcome. VIL & GGP both fell into this category and hence I was obliged to drop them when both stocks failed to confirm their momentum and upward direction. So out I got at avg 2.7 and 3.7 respectively and barely pulled a profit over both long and short term trades after being up more than $80K.

    However unlike the majority of stocks that I put down to getting it wrong, these two just simply won't let me banish them from my watch list. Something is missing from the whole makeup and run-up to D-day.

    So what went wrong.

    1) Placement
    I would suggest unlike most co-ordinated price pumps and dumps that the placement was done to new investors who are on the placement train - that is: most of them probably settle for 10-20% turns 'v' the traditional 'Replacement' stock placements which are normaly done to clients or investors who sell stock during a price movement upwards and simply replace this stock with their placement stock allowing them to provide after market support and hence maintain share price momentum. Clearly there was no aftermarket support with this placement. I would suggest the only attempt to protect the placement price was done by speculative buyers anticipating a protection of the placement price.

    2) Rebound Speculation
    Most chart followers would have anticipated a rebound around 3.2 and at worst 2.7. Both were zones of accumulation. Unfortunately the accumulating was not being done by anyone else other than those that speculate on a rebound or ramp up. This provided both the placement stock with an opportunity to exit and an even bigger after placement hangover for the stock. When the rebound did not occur this stock was always going to be a problem with further retracement. Essentialy it was always going to be a stop loss nightmare at 2.4-2.5 which is what we have seen

    3) Belief Evapourates
    All of a sudden 2.7 and 3.2 look wishfull, let alone 4.5 etc, so the stock sags under the weight of those that have done their bollocks or have given up.

    SO WHERE AM I GOING WITH THIS RAMBLE?

    Why would GGP or VIL waste their time drilling if they did not think they had something that was marketable? If no one sees blue sky then abandon ship, its pretty simple.

    Then I read the annoucement toay from GGP. Not one bit of excitment at all and yet its going according to plan! Why? Its obviously just another well to them and the marketability has obviously been left to someone else.

    So where are they?

    Someones made a cracker or two out of this little pump and dump and I suspect they will go in hard for round two. If they don't I will remain puzzled by the Company's strategy and the people they engage to promote it.

    I hope this all makes some sense!

    Best of Luck and may the dollars come your way.

    IMO
 
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