viagra, & junior bio-techs

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    It is an amazing characteristic of the human race that once we do our personal research & believe in something ,we cannot be convinced that we may be wrong, or at least a bit over enthusiastic in our assesment of a situatation.

    ( I am as guilty as anyone of this human failing)

    Recently on H/C there have been extreme examples of this characteristic.

    I speak with some authority on "the bio-techs", having some formal training in this area.

    The fact is,the lead times from concept, to trials, to commercial reality, is many years, & involves vast amounts of capital.

    For every new product conceived which is ultimately succesful, there are literally hundreds which don't make it.
    Even the succeful companies run the risk of litigation down the track when their product are marketed in the good old USA.

    So lets have a reality check here.

    Junior Bio-techs stocks fall into 3 main catagories.

    1/
    The COWBOYS

    The ex mining/dot com promoters milking the market,sucking in the public with B/S ideas generally related to peoples' vanity ( fat loss, increased libido, etc. ) & making claims for products with no scientific background & no hope of ever coming to fruition.
    ( Mining/dot.com/ bio-tech. .. I'ts all the same for "the boys ".)

    2/
    The SINCERE ENTHUSIASTIC AMATEURS

    Those who don't know any better, mostly with pie in the sky, impossible & unscientific claims & for whom ignorance is bliss. ( "Sun-tanning" springs to mind here. )

    I suspect there is some overlap between 1 & 2

    3/ PROPERLY BASED R/D ORGANISATIONS
    Generally scientists, often but not always, with no practial commercial experience.

    It is from the third group that the real breakthroughs will come, both in new drugs & medical devices.


    Having a succesful product does not guarantee commercial success.

    Example

    Biota's "Relenza" influenza drug flopped commercially even though it worked..... Too complicated to use, & competitors had a similar product "Tamiflu" which was easier to use.( If you used either, you felt better in 7 days. If you used nothing, you got better in a week ! )

    On the other hand :-

    Cochlea's hearing technology ...

    A real winner !.................

    So they are out there.

    I guess the possibility of the 500 to 1 winner is why "Miss Market " is such a seductive temptress to us all !

    To this extent, junior bio-techs are no different to junior mining companies. Most fail,.... but the winners !!!!

    THe object of my post is not to bag or to promote ANY bio-tech stock, but to point out that this is a very high risk area of the market.

    Just make sure you :-

    Get things in perspective.

    Don't be too carried away in your enthusiasm without objectivly weighing up the realities.

    Consider the possibility, indeed the high probability, of failure.

    Look at the efficacy & practicality of the product, the times & the cost involved in bringing any new drugs or devices to commercial reality, & the possiblilty of the opposition coming up with a superior product.

    It is rather ironical that I have not been involved in the bio-tech "boom" ,( unlike many of the excellent posters here who have no doubt made a lot of money, trading) when it is an area in which I do have some knowledge.
    I have been too cynical & cautious.Yet I have been a great enthusiast of a local gold explorer ( which has so far, not gone up. Can you believe it ! ) when I have no formal training in geology/mining.

    Perhaps a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

    Finally, on a "lighter" note

    Pfizer is bringing out a new VIAGRA...


    VIAGRA LITE.


    30% less fat.

    Good luck & good trading.

    Caveat Emptor

    Bendigo
 
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