ventracor limited

# vcr - summary of rock steady

1. 423 Posts.
VCR Valuation Methods

Assumptions

- trials are successful
- approval is granted in Europe, Japan and U.S
- marketing is successful and
- Gov't reimbursement is available
- Most published research figures are simply projections and always disagree on total numbers etc making any sort of accuracy difficult.
- assume published figures are correct though for this exercise.
- made no allowances for the other uses VentrAssist will be used for and that VCR have planned.

Valuation Method 1

Number of CHF sufferers who are potential recipients 11,000,000
number of who will become LVAS recipients 1,000,000
\$ of Market 11Billion
Cost of VentrAssist device About \$50,000
VCR % share of market 10% - so 110,000 unit sales for VCR
Profit as % of sales Net 30%
Time to sales 3-4 years …revenue expected by end of 2004
P/E 38
Shares on issue by 2010 220M

Calculation

110,000 units being sold for 7 years @ price \$30,000 per unit so \$3,300,000,000 in sales.
From this our Net Profit could be \$990,000,000.

220 Million shares on issue by 2010

\$990,000,000 against the 220,000,000 shares on issue gives us an EPS of \$4.50
If, in 2010, VCR are doing well, they will be recognised world wide, growing strongly and be listed on a U.S. exchange and it may possibly be conservative to give them a P/E of 38
So finally, EPS of \$4.50 with a P/E of 38 gives us a possible shareprice in 2010 of \$171.00.
Valuation method 2

VCR can obtain 10% of total market share by 2008

An available LVAS market value of AUD\$11,000,000,000 in 2008.

presume VCR can achieve 10% of this, their share will represent \$1,100,000,000

sale price of \$30,000 into the equation, we arrive at a result of 36,666 unit sales.

Multiplying our unit sales by our profit per unit of 30% (representing net profit margin), or more correctly \$9000.00 we achieve a net profit of \$329,994,000.

Presuming 220 million shares on issue by 2008, results in \$1.50 earnings per share.

\$1.50 with a P/E of 38 (Scotts) results in a shareprice projection or estimate, of \$57.00.

Currently unlisted public company.