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Value Hovea to Arc

  1. 1,655 Posts.
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    Just going through their latest announcements and it seems the oil estimates will be firmed up 15 days after 20 May. Their current predictions are between 8-32 million barrels of recoverable oil. In both of their latest announcements ARC seem fairly certain (their words from 3rd qtr report "they have also confirmed that there is no gas cap in place" they being the production tests , although I'm not sure what type of tests they that could do to actually confirm this 100% as written) that there is no gas cap on this structure. Going through the numbers I come up with some interesting value per share if the oil estimates and the recovery factor( which I understand is to the high side) are close to the mark.

    Using USD Oil price 25 USD
    Cost production 10 USD
    AUS/USD exchange 0.53
    oil between 8-32 million barrels recov.
    152 Million shares

    leads to value per share between 0.74 to 2.98 AUD

    Then try playing with the parameters exchange/recovery factor you AUD/USD 0.6 and rec fact 0.3 you get value between 0.49 and 1.97.

    If oil price increases over time say 30USD barrel goes to 0.66 and 2.63.

    Thus my conclusion is that there seems little risk that the value of Hovea per share is less than current share price and when factoring back in existing assets + cliffhead I guess the share will go up further. Logically there will be selling pressure up to results are known for Hovea 2 but for traders who like risk the rewards could be high. For those who want to play it safe probably best time to buy now is straight after results of Hovea 2 are known if positive or a while later if negative.

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