SFX 2.65% 55.0¢ sheffield resources limited

Not me. A lot of water to go under the bridge and the DFS hasn't...

  1. 2ic
    5,493 Posts.
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    Not me. A lot of water to go under the bridge and the DFS hasn't even been released yet, who knows what the real numbers are or the devil in the detail.

    Think about how many holders were under water from all that 65c trading since the $16M Cr back in Dec 18. Never going to hold mid 60's first approach, was always going to struggle to hold 60's until DFS is released. Many reasons for holders to take risk off the table at these prices after a 100% bounce, I'm surprised there hasn't been more selling. Just because us on HC have a good handle on where we think this is going doesn't mean everyone does or believes management after the last 6 months disaster.

    If you want to trade it a bit, wait until after the DFS in a couple of weeks time and sell the news bounce for a pull back. I am happy to hold for M&A or JV later in the year, or sooner. Under 50c is just too cheap and not enough sellers to allow any trading. Mid 50's then looks like a middle ground between the too cheap 40's and too much for now 60's I reckon. Thing is SFX not very liquid, if the market decide it deserves a re-rate, and index funds need to buy in and re-balance, the price has to move in 10c increments to bring out more sellers. DFS will see the price push through the 65c range imo, but with the recent history and technical damage done news of a JV will be required to run it up much more than mid 70's.

    If I am right and SFX is a $2.50+ value stock (keep in mind I used 75c AUD and TZMI long term pricing so there is 20% upside if your views are less conservative) then savvy funds will be using this lull to accumulate not distribute holdings before the balloon goes up.

    Cheers

 
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