The 40 cents was based on a 24% probability of success and revenue from the US market only. The modelled risk was certainly conservative, but not unreasonable at the time the report was prepared. Anyone who disagreed with any of their assumptions could adjust with their own figures, or include potential revenue from other markets.
So if you increase the probability of success increases to 50% following the Phase 2 results, the model would value the SP around 80 cents, not far from where it stands now (which makes it still on the undervalued side depending on your risk appetite).
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Mkt cap ! $164.5M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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15 | 1874183 | 30.0¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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15 | 1874183 | 0.300 |
8 | 282104 | 0.295 |
16 | 1221907 | 0.290 |
8 | 239548 | 0.285 |
8 | 222379 | 0.280 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.305 | 10850 | 1 |
0.310 | 277820 | 4 |
0.315 | 291993 | 6 |
0.320 | 529798 | 8 |
0.325 | 144810 | 6 |
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Change
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