Valuation post IOH Takeover, page-11

  1. 9,747 Posts.
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    thanks super. useful input

    though i dont really see it as 2 directions as i already made the point the deal is good for BCI long term

    the issue at debate was what happens to the SP post deal - ie during the next 2-3 years - regardless of the long term merits.

    Interesting about that Iron Valley projection - I havent seen that in any of the docs i was looking through. But still almost immaterial given capex and sustaining capex requirements for Bucklands - esp in a rising interest rate environment.

    Since 2012 I;ve maintained an expectation the steel market would start to improve in 2015/16 - when I expect Europe to be sufficiently recovered to start buying more of China's optional steel tonnes.

    Thats already happening - but need Chinese also to have good domestic demand for iron ore price to go back above $US100 i would think.

    That will be the time when - as an onmarket investor - Ill be most interested in revisiting a merged BCI/IOH.

    Though for same reason I would expect another bidder as a realistic possibility.

    But lets see what the market tells us post a deal being concluded.
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