TSN 0.00% 1.0¢ the sustainable nutrition group ltd

Update, page-2

  1. 5,441 Posts.
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    I posted this on another site surfrat, it's common knowledge to us, but worth reading if you are unsure about today's announcement;

    There's nothing new in this presentation, other than they have shifted their focus on to who they are going to sell HA-Irinotecan to, rather than speculating about the success of the PhIII trial.

    They are confident I think.

    The trial has been running for a lot longer than it should. There have been plenty of previous trials for metastatic colorectal cancer, so we have quite a lot of information on the likely performance of the control arm. They should have pretty much all had disease progression by September last year. Here we are in July, and at least 40 patients on the trial have not progressed. There's about 210 using HA-Irinotecan, and it's a fair guess they are the 40+. FDA have advised approval will be granted if a progression free improvement of just 6 weeks is proved. It's looking statistically like that may well be over 6 months. If it is anywhere near that it is likely to be cleared for use in first line treatment. That is a very large market. Currently the highest target is for 2nd and 3rd line treatment, which is still a huge market.

    The market isn't buying it. The inferred results are unbelievable.

    Let's hope they're not.
 
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