Understanding lithium demand, page-1563

I thought I would come back here and have a yabber around lithium demand and supply. I like using this thread to put down my thoughts around lithium supply projections

1. Summary:
The lithium shortfall projections assume there is generally 0.9 LCE need per kWh. This assumption is essentially based on current technology, but I suspect technology will improve and will improve battery efficiency, not to the theoretical efficiency of 0.371 LCE per kWh, but even if they can get to 0.6 - 0.7 LCE per kWh that is a big improvement which impacts forecast lithium supply. Although improving battery efficiency will probably open up even greater use of lithium ion batteries in other applications and in heavier vehicles in particular, so whilst you might expect a drop in the number of new mines required it will not be as pronounced as one may assume IMO, but time will tell.

The predominant batteries going forward remain IMO NCA and NCM batteries - section 3 of Post #:56535539 Those getting to production first will enjoy the greatest benefit from current high prices. But this is the point - if prices remain high you would expect more effort been put into improving battery efficiency, and this flows on to adversely impact the number of new mines coming onstream to meet forecast EV demand. But you still need a lot of mines is the point, but it is better been early to production that late is also the other point, and obviously in the current climate the sooner one gets to production they will better enjoy the current high prices available, noting overtime as new production comes onstream prices will subdue but IMO not to the levels assumed in say AVZ DFS where they assumed 6% grade spodumene price average of US$673.30 per tonne (i.e. I expect the average long term price to be much higher than this but I do expect prices to settle down from current levels by 2027 - 2030).

2. Demand and number of mines:
The below is from Post #:65817444 and in effect estimates the number of mines required at 0.9 LCE per kWh for 5000 LCE GWh capacity in 2030 - this embedded post has a number of scenarios but just bring the one below:



Going to the opening post of this thread if technology improvements in battery performance can improve battery efficiency towards theoretical efficiency whilst you still need a lot of new mines to meet forecast EV demand, the number of new mines required reduces.

High prices IMO currently of the likes we are seeing today has two effect - firstly the rush for new mines and secondly battery makers seeking to improve battery performance/efficiency so as to reduce input needs. Not a problem for those that can enter the market quickly but the longer it takes to get to mining the greater the risk that technology improves and your entry to market gets delayed. Demand is there so get their early entrenches one in the market as well by making sure they hit payback periods as estimated in their DFS/FID and because they are there operations are not impacted - infact been in production (improved battery performance) also means they are also placed well to meet new supplier needs.

The opening post explains how 0.371 LCE per kWh is derived in Section 4 of that post - Post #:37817451 and the explanation is provided in that post as well as to why batteries are currently not performing at theoretical efficiency. The maths I redo below, but as we know as industries develop so does efficiency:

As I understand it the theoretical figure is based on the following (there is 5.3 tonnes LCE to 1 tonne lithium metal):

1. The atomic weight of lithium is 6.94 grams/mole - https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/lithium

2. You get one electron per lithium atom, and there are 96485 coulombs per mole of electrons (or what some may refer to as the Faraday unit of charge)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_constant

3. Further more you have 3 electrons and 3 ions in lithium so becomes 1:1 so probably makes conversions easier

http://resources.schoolscience.co.uk/stfc/14-16/partch3pg2.html

4. One ampere is one coulomb per second.

5. One Amp Hour (Ah) therefore equals 3600 coulomb (60*60)

6. Theoretical lithium content becomes 96485/3600 = 26.80 AH, then divide by 6.94 grams/mole and you get 1 gram lithium = 3.86 Ah (or 0.26 grams lithium i= 1 Amp)

7. If your battery has a voltage of 3.6V multiply this by 3.86 Ah and you get 14.282 Watt Hours. See voltage data for batteries here: https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/confusion_with_voltages

8. 1000 Watt Hours = 1 kWh so divide 1000/14.282 = 70 g of pure lithium per kWh. If voltage is say 3.2V * 3.86Ah = 12.352 and divide this by 1000 and you get 81 g pure lithium per kWh

9. Multiply point 8 outcomes by 5.3 (to get to lithium metal) and you get a theoretical 371 grams of LCE per kWh of battery capacity, or 0.371 LCE per 1 kWh.

3. Solid State batteries
Currently basically you need roughly 2kg LCE per kWh, and I suspect, although haven't done the maths on this one, the theoretical efficiency is probably closer to 0.8 LCE - 1LCE per kWh. But these batteries too me remain longer term and as I stated in this post where the below comes from the predominant batteries going forward are going to be NCA and NCM batteries - section 5 of Post #:56535539
The embedded post above also gives my view on hydrogen and lithium sulphur batteries.

Have been contemplating how energy efficiency may impact lithium forecasts over a VB, and thought have a post on it. Although as I said improving battery performance also opens up other applications IMO such as in heavy vehicle takeup, given improving battery efficiency also helps charging and distance to recharge IMO.

All IMO IMO IMO