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"The trade war may extend for another year as Chinese wait to...

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    "The trade war may extend for another year as Chinese wait to see if Democrats can win 2020, but if/when Trump wins the gloves will come off for real and China will be brought to their knees on trade and rightly so".

    In a scenario where Washington puts tariffs of 25% on all imports from China, with Beijing retaliating in kind, U.S. GDP would take a hit of around 0.5%, he said, leaving the economy around $45 billion smaller by 2020 than in a world without tariffs.

    That would push real GDP growth — growth minus inflation — dangerously close to 1% by the end of 2020, he said.

    China’s GDP growth would be reduced by around 1.3% in 2020, slowing to an unprecedented 5% annual pace, while world GDP would suffer a significant 0.5% loss (see chart below).

    And then there’s the “extreme scenario” of full-blown, multilateral trade war. In this scenario, Oxford Economics modeled the impact of the U.S. putting 35% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% auto tariffs globally, plus 10% blanket tariffs on all other goods imported from the EU, Taiwan and Japan — with all countries retaliating in kind.

    The firm calculated this would result in a 2.1% hit to U.S. GDP in 2020, pushing the economy into recession later this year.

    China’s economy would contract by 2.5%, while Europe and Japan would see average GDP losses of 1.5% and world GDP would be reduced by 1.7%.

    The damage to private-sector confidence and the accompanying plunge in stock prices would likely see central banks forced into significant rate cuts and other measures, Daco said.

    www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-hit-us-chinese-and-global-economies-could-face-as-trade-battle-heats-up-2019-05-09?mod=mw_theo_homepage


    US election 2020: Which Democrat will take on Trump in 2020?

    We've only just passed the half-way point of Donald Trump's first term as president, but there's already a host of Democrats racing to stop him from winning a second.

    Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have thrown their hats into the ring, but most of the other candidates are relatively unknown outside the Washington DC bubble.

    The current group already contains a record number of women and looks set to be the most diverse ever.

    Here's our rundown of all the candidates that have announced they are running and some others who could join them, including a few wildcards, with a take from the BBC's Anthony Zurcher on each.



    So Place your Bets Folks, Who's it gonna be ?

    Bernie or Biden ? Warren or Harris ?

    With No Hilary or Oprah in the Race anymore

    I think "The Donald is in with a good shot at back to back victories here, What with a looming Election next year, I'm guessing he would like this well and truly wrapped up beforehand though imo. So he can say, See i showed em' I stood up to em' when No one else had the Balls to do it in the past, Blah - blah - blah, Tweet tweet tweet, but in saying that i do admire him for standing up for his Country, Not backing away and having the intestinal fortitude to see it through to it's conclusion one way or the other, so i commend him for that. I just hope he / we bring home the Bacon flavoured ( BTA's ) at the end of the Day and all this Pain, Frustration and Angst is well and truly worth it ! as

    I was hoping "The Rock" might "Roll Ronald" in the Oval Office with a Smackdown, but alas,

    Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson announced his presidential campaign while hosting Saturday Night Live in 2017.

    He even brought on Tom Hanks to ask him to be his running mate.

    But all was not what it seemed and the former WWE star later admitted that he was "only joking".

    The actor did, however, say that "Americans deserve strong capable leaders who care about this country and its people".
    Anthony's take:

    The Rock wouldn’t really run, would he? But he’s got money, he’s got name recognition, and he’s got rock-hard abs.

    www.bbc.com/news

    Will be a Very interesting Election No Doubt ! One i will be following with interest !

    Cheers

    Frank
    So Place your Bets Folks, Who's it gonna be ?

    Bernie or Biden ? Warren or Harris ?

    With No Hilary or Oprah in the Race anymore

    China is DREAMING that Sleepy Joe Biden, or any of the others, gets elected in 2020. They LOVE ripping off America!
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 12, 2019


    Dow futures drop over 300 points as U.S.-China trade talks appear stalled


    China editorial says country won’t ‘bow to any extreme pressure’

    Wall Street was setting up for a tough start to the week on Monday, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down over 300 points as investors waited for countermeasures from China after trade talks with the U.S. appeared to end in a stalemate.


    What drove the market?

    Trade tensions that drove volatility for stocks last week were rebooting Monday, as investors faced up to the fact that a deal between the U.S. and China could take longer than they expected. Talks in Washington ended with no agreement on Friday.

    The Trump administration said it was ready to impose 25% tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, nearly all that country’s imports, after that duty was lifted to 10% as of Friday. Investors are now waiting for retaliatory measures from Beijing. The country’s chief negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, has demanded tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. be lifted as a condition for striking a deal.

    In several tweets over the weekend U.S. President Trump tweeted that the U.S. was in an advantageous position over trade, though White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow admitted Sunday that “both sides” will feel the pain. His comment that Trump and China’s President, Xi Jinping, may meet at the Group of 20 international conference in June failed to soothe investors.

    A Sunday editorial in the Global Times, a daily Chinese tabloid newspaper published by the Communist Party, said the “fierce U.S. offensive is irrational,” and the idea that China cannot bear a trade war is “a fantasy and misjudgment.”

    “China has been pushing forward the bilateral talks with a high sense of responsibility and maximized sincerity, but it will never yield to the extreme pressure from the U.S., or compromise on matters of principle,” said a Monday op-ed in The People’s Daily, an official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Communist Party

    With no economic data on the calendar, investors were likely to keep the focus on those tensions.


    What are strategists saying?

    “Any goodwill to risk assets on Friday has faded through Asia, and there the preservation of capital is the overriding theme, although there is absolutely no panic,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

    “Protectionism and the impact that can have on demand can be hard to model, and it feels that with these dynamics in play the market will further de-risk, with traders wanting a return of their equity, as opposed to on their equity,” Weston added.

    www.marketwatch.com
 
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