APH 5.75% 46.0¢ australian primary hemp limited

to those who sold - thank you

  1. gkm
    331 Posts.
    Repeat my subject - To Those who sold Thank You - from all of us who found it a much better opportunity to accumalate today than it was a week back (even though its a few cents more expensive now).

    Very Simple Mathematics could have been used to figure out that ACL is now a no-brainer. I believe this has been posted earlier - but i will keep my maths much more pessimistic

    US Market size $400 million
    Discount the market size by a price reduction of 30% = $280 Million
    DR Reddys Share ONLY 30% = $84 Million
    Costs etc = $25 million
    NETT Revenue = $60 Million rounded
    60% to ACL = $36 Million ANNUAL
    Current Market Cap of ACL = About $150 Million

    If ACL closed shop today - shareholders would be paid back in FULL within 4 years and beyond that would get a ROI of 25% each year. Lets see another biotech on ASX which can do that.

    The above calculations are based on PE of 1 and no further value add from any HYACT or R&D or growth in Fonda market in US or worldwide. As soon as you include even one of these variables - the deal gets sweeter for the Shareholders.

    I am with the holders who felt a little irritated holding the stock for years and years and then getting 70c post approval. But hey - the way i see it is - Karma - Shareholders who believe got another opportunity to buy into a much more de-risked venture.

    I remeber i did a similar mathematics post on Linc Energy (LNC) about 10 months back - Post #: 5647828. The price on that day was $1.57 and today its $2.57 (and a 10c fully franked dividend) with an outlook of $4.50 within the next 12-18 months.

    I realise there are other companies which could have done better than the above return - but from a risk/reward perspective - the Risk is MUCH less - and as an investor i like that - i'd rather have a less risky stock returning 20% than a high risky returning 50%.

    Sorry guys couldnt join you'll in Brisbane - I live on the Gold Coast but am overseas ATM.

    My thoughts only - DYOR - No Advice Given or Intended.
 
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