OEL 0.00% 1.0¢ otto energy limited

to the point of being r....

  1. 421 Posts.
    ............idiculous

    Euroz’s valuation is so conservative, to the point of being meaningless.


    Euroz assumptions:
    Galoc:
    2009 oil price US$62.50 / bbl – presently US$95 / bbl
    2010 oil price US$52.50 / bbl
    Long term oil price US$45.00 / bbl

    Factored 2 extra wells at US$25m

    Calauit in ground $15 / bbl, risked @ 80% !!!!!!!!!!!!

    (Euroz valuation does not include any other c/f from other assets.)

    -------------------------------

    OEL’s valuations:

    Net cash, post tax, available to OEL US$ 60m @ $80/bbl

    Galoc deal NPV valuation:

    NPV $ 54m @ US$60 / bbl
    NPV $122m @ US$80 / bbl

    NPV $156m @ US$90 / bbl

    Calauit:
    NPV for Calauit greater than US$120 million at US$60/bbl



    A more realistic valuation than Euroz’s:

    Galoc:
    NPV $122m @ US$80/bbl = $0.27 / share
    or
    NPV $156m @ US$90 / bbl = $0.35 / share
    or
    cash flow 08 - US$60m @ PE 5 = A$0.74 / share

    Calauit:
    NPV6.6mbbl @ $US15 / 98% risked 10% = A$95m - $0.21 / share

    Argao:
    33mbbl - 40% - US$10 – risked 90% = A$ 14m - $0.03 / share

    Marantao:
    227mbbl – 30% - US$ 7.50 - 95% risked = A$27m - $0.06 / share

    Argentina ?????

    Turkey - massive cash flows soon $?????



    Absolute Base-case valuation $0.85 to $1.45 / share

    With all the massive upside still in place!
 
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