We all have commitments &lives outside the stock market – work, family, friends etc.
I’m no different: family,gym, dog, etc. However the market is a BIG part of my life. Beyong being a source of wealth, it’s a passion, puzzle, challenge. In short, it’s fun & Ilove it. That’s why I can’t believe I’ve only really sat down and analysed thereport of 22 September re the 58m reef today.
And now that I’ve invested some time & effort into analysing it, I’m convinced it’s a game changer thatwill send the Dante story into overdrive. And very few people understand this yet. Why? Because this is a story for the geos & not easy for the layman to understand.
Case in point, I put thefollowing from the report into ChatGPT:
What does the following mean inlayman terms? Increasing evidence of mafic–ultramafic geology, combined withhigher sulphide content and nickel mineralisation, suggests drilling is nowvectoring into the lower portions of the stratigraphy.
ChatGPT said:
Here’s a plain-language version ofthat statement:
The rocks being drilled are showingmore signs of being the right type (dark, heavy volcanic rocks that often hostnickel deposits). At the same time, the amount of sulphides and traces ofnickel are increasing. This all suggests that the drilling is getting closer tothe deeper, more promising rock layers where nickel deposits are most likely tobe found.
In short: The evidence indicatesthey’re drilling into the deeper parts of the rock sequence where nickel-rich zonesare more likely.
With the discovery of the SW Prospect, we are seeing a potentially different potpourri of metals in this polymetallic deposit which, according to the report, is even more in keeping with the Bushveld reef corollary. The assays will confirm the actual mix & grade.
However I know what some of you are thinking – who the f wants nickel these days?
My response to you is the following: one way to make money in this game is to listen to & follow the experts; the serially successful investors – those who have made the sort of money we all aspire to make; learn from their wisdom & try to emulate them.
The Rick Rule Factor
One of my go-tos in the resources space is Rick Rule. He repeats messages that IMHO need to be adopted by anyone playing in the small end of the resource market.
His mantra is that when it comes to investing in commodities, you’re either a contrarian or a victim.
Similarly, he correctly states that the timeline of your investment has to suit your investment profile. Most of us buy a speccie today after doing our research thinking we’re going to hold it for 5 years & walk away squillionaires, however in reality we want to make a quick x%, flog it & move onto the next play. In other words, our perception doesn’t meet our reality.
Another of his observations, that when you buy a small explorer, get ready to watch it halve even though the story may even be better than when you first bought it.
Rick Rule & Terra
I now apply the above to TM1.
You’re either a contrarian or a victim: Pt has broken out following a multi-year bear market. Pd is following Pt. Au is at record highs. However, at least for the time being, Dante is predominantly a V2O5/TiO2 mine.
My 2 cents: we are about to enter a commodity super cycle. Gold is leading the way but Pt/Pd are also going to go bat sh-t crazy. V2O5 is on the cusp due to vanadium flow batteries. TiO2, at least as it pertains to TM1, has a long way to go as, depending on its structure, it can be cost effectively processed from a cheaper ilmenite into a much higher value added product.
If the SW Prospect is more Ni rich; FWIW, Rick Rule recently stated he’s starting to look at select Ni sulphide companies as the current depressed Ni price caused by the heavily polluting Ni laterite mines in Indonesia will eventually lead to a reassessment of production from such sources. You’re either a contrarian or a victim.
Your holding profile: I can only speak for myself. I started buying TM1 almost immediately following the vend of Dante. I watched it run to 10.5, then fall to 1.7c; all the while when the story kept getting better. I averaged up, I averaged down but never lost the faith because the depreciation was unwarranted.
Being honest with myself, I wish I’d first heard about TM1 in mid-March this year. But I’m a LT holder & feel more comfortable holding now for the big pay day than ever before.
I’ve put in the hard yards; time to enjoy the spoils of my speculation & suffering. I know it won’t be a straight line, but I genuinely feel we’re perhaps in the 2nd innings of a 9 innings game.
The ultimate game here will be a take out by a major (perhaps GEAR & some partners) as Dante will prove to be a multi-generational asset in a brilliant jurisdiction.
How long will it take? My best guess – not more than 18 months.
At what valuation? NFI, however as I’ve stated in other posts; given the current bull market in resource stocks, TM1 could be capped north of $1Bn very easily & in quick time.
CHN had a peak MC of about $3.5Bn & IMHO Dante craps all over Julimar any which way you cut the cake.
The Evolution of Dante
I can only surmise how the DanteProject has evolved, however it’s my considered opinion that Thomas had a verygood idea even before the vend of Dante into GCX about the potential of thisdistrict (just look at all of the references in the report of 22/9/25 to thereport of 13/12/23).
Systematic explorationconfirmed these thoughts and the ultimate arbiter & truth detector, thedrill bit, was the proverbial nail in the coffin confirming Dante as a worldclass, globally significant discovery.
It’s the hard yards & thorough geological work by a committed team of experts that has led to the discovery of the Southwest (SW) Prospect almost 2 years later.
Good things take time. Verygood things take even longer. And in the instance of the SW Prospect, I thinkwe may be onto a very, very good thing. There’s a reason Thomas is grinninglike the proverbial Cheshire Cat every time we see one of his drilling updatesfrom Dante.
Thomas has stated on numerousoccasions that the EMs are an excellent indicator of mineralised reefs. That’s why the company has an unheard of 98% strike rate during drilling & subsequent low (& I suspect getting lower) cost of discovery.
And so we have the 58m interval, discovered through the targeting of magnetic anomalies:
Drill hole SWRC008 was planed to test two parallel, NW-SEtrending magnetic anomalies, at the new SW4 target, part of the Southwest Prospect (Figure 2). The most southwestern magnetic anomaly is approximately400m long and the most northeastern magnetic anomaly is approximately 200m long.
SWRC008 hit a multiple magnetite enriched ‘reef’ zonesthat corresponse with the aeromagnetic anomlies but the most significant zone was intersected at 132m downhole and continued from 58m downhole to 190m(Figure 3).
Drilling has also intersected ultramafic andsulphide-rich geology at the Southwest Prospect, further strengthening thegeological model and supporting the potential for associated copper, gold,platinum-group-metals (“PGMs”), nickel, cobalt, vanadium, and titaniummineralisation.
I estimate the company is drilling about 450m/day – 400m RC, 50m DD. That’s a hell of a lot of drilling for a junior explorer. And with the apparent understanding that Thomas has of Dante, on any given day we can wake up to yet another blockbuster report.
TM1 is now at a MC & has the volume characteristics that should attract some of the smaller & more aggressive funds. Should they want to play, it won’t be through placement. Consequently it’ll have to be on market.
Similarly, I believe TM1 will soon have a MC that will justify inclusion in ASX index funds. This will attract yet another class of investor. Read below for what index inclusion contributed to CHN.
What this means is that it can be easier to 10x from $100m MC to than it can to 10x from $10m MC.
Terra vs. Chalice
Although it’s not a perfect comparison, it may be useful to compare the trajectory of TM1 with that of CHN.
I’m not going to do a deep dive on all the similarities & differences between Julimar & Dante, although I stand by my earlier comment that Dante has it all over CHN.
CHN had a MC around $75m (EV - $65m) in mid-March 2020. It then doubled on the first assays from Julimar later in March before doubling again in mid-April on further assays. In June 2021, CHN had a MC of about $3.1Bn (EV - $3Bn) after raising $145m in 2 cap raises & an SPP along the way.
From the time CHN was included in the ASX300 in March ’21 till June ’21 it put on about $1.5Bn of MC.
If my analysis is correct, TM1 can replicate CHN, however I doubt it’ll need to raise $145m along the way. I also doubt it’ll be around to see a $3Bn+ valuation.
I urge anyone with an interest in TM1 to sit down in a quiet environment & read, reread & keep on rereading the report of 22 September until they really understand its significance, as it’s a game changer for Dante. Figure 2 is my idea of geographic porn.
And the scariest part; they still have barely scratched the surface of the treasures that Dante has to reveal.
Parting Thoughts
If you haven’t already worked it out, when I write these rambling treatises that I sometimes share on HC, it’s actually for my own good. It’s my way of grappling with all the issues surrounding an investment I made.
Suffice to say I’ve been playing this game for over 4 decades & I haven’t encountered a TM1 scenario. Perhaps it’s because I’m a slow learner & not very good at this caper, or perhaps you don’t find Tier 1 assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions with Tier 1 management & Tier 1 backers every day of the week; or even every decade of your life.
When TM1 was trading under 2c, it was a very small position in my portfolio, so there was no pressure involved in holding it. At closer to 20c, it’s starting to move the needle. At 5x from current levels, it’ll start to be significant.
I’ll leave you with the following comment from one of the great speculators; a man whose ethos I despise, yet whose ability to make money I revere; George Soros. He once told his protégé & another legend of the investment game, Stanley Druckenmiller, "It takes courage to be a pig".
I hope I have the courage to bring home all the bacon that TM1 will bestow.
