TIM 0.00% 4.4¢ timbercorp limited


  1. 136 Posts.
    ALPHA - I have read with interest some of your comments which I would like to address and add some of my own.

    There are many brokers that have recommended TIM as a buy or strong buy, and not all on techincal merits. To list a few ABN Ambro, Comsec, Hartleys, B&B, Shaw, Austock. Not R.R. but we all know how he operates.

    I will quote you the opening paragraph of ABN Ambro's report and a paragraph from page 27 from the same report dated 4th October 2002.

    " Planting the Seeds for Success"
    - 'Timbercorp is one of the largest Agribusiness investment companies in Australia. Its business model is designed to generate significant sustainable earnings and this sets it apart from its competitors. We initiate coverage with a buy recommendation.'

    -'The key difference between Timbercorp and other listed Agribusiness Investment Management Companies lies in the structure of earnings streams. Timbercorp derives a substantial and growing proportion of its revenue from annuity- style income. This income strem is subject to a very different risk profile from that of new project sales. Timbercorp has effectively locked in a long term source of revenue, making it less reliant on the need to make a certain level of new propectus sales every year. The annuity-style income could be expected to command a higher price-earnings that new project income as a result of the greater stability of earnings.'

    At long last the experts, analysts, and whoever are starting to understand the business model of TIM. The recurring revenue is an absolute winner and as stated in ABN Ambro's report 'sets it apart' from its competitors.

    That said I believe the majority of TIM's project sales where made within Victoria in the 2001-2002 Financial year. I also believe that they are currently working to insure that their Sales Team/Financial Planners are equally as effective in all other states in the future.

    In regards to TIM's move into Olives and Almonds, I think it is an excellent move, to diversify and spread your risk within an industry in which they are experts.

    As you know forestry plantations take approximatley 10years from planting to harvest, and then they start again. The terms of the Horicultural products are around 23years for Olives and 20years Almonds, however they both harvested annually from the third year after establishment.

    Whilst the capital outlay to establish these projects including processing faciltities is high the projected returns are huge.

    Tim is heavily into research and has its own research department, to my knowledge none of its competitors have this.

    Tim also has it's own infield chipping system in which patents are pending - none of its competitors have this.

    This company has set and are setting the foundation to be around for a long time and to insure greater returns for their shareholders and growers.

    In all of my previous comments I am not suggesting that TIM's competitors are not good operators in fact I believe alot of them have excellent management and a bright future.

    The risk to the industry is a persistance of negative sentiment towards the Agribusiness Investment Management Sector. I am firmly convinced that this will change in time.

    In regard to GTP (A major competitor) I believe they have good management and a good future, however I have no doubt that TIM's business model is far superior for reasons as previously stated.

    Last but not least I do not believe (after talking to Mgt) that the current dry will have any major effect on the olives or almonds if any at all.
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