thought food

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    The scenerios below (from BT) are the 3 most likely events (and results) to occur in Australia and the world over the next 6 months.

    1. Inflation scenario (25% chance):
    - inflation picks up
    - stockmarkets contract
    - Australian interest rates rise
    - Commodity prices rise
    - Australian dollar rises

    2. Structural problem scenario (25% chance):
    - Sharemarkets fall
    - Australian dollar rises (versus USD)
    - Commodity prices fall
    - Australian interest rates fall

    3. Reasonable growth current int/rate (50% chance):
    - sharemarkets rise
    - Australian dollar falls (as USD rises)
    - Commodity prices rise
    - Interest rates remain flat

    This leads me to a view that it is favourable to buy exporting producing domestic resource stocks for the medium term.

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