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  1. bombadier

    2,271 Posts.

    I sat up last night playing with charts, as I often do.
    Here's something interesting.

    You all keep telling the this market slump is June tax selloff.

    For the last 5 years, the market has risen in June.
    The 5 years preceding that, the market fell in June.

    Now it gets interesting:
    The first 5 years, every time the market rose in June, it fell in July.
    The last 5 years when it fell in June, every time it rose in July!

    10 out of 10 is a significant number to keep your eye on.

    This year undoubtably June will be down, will we see a good July? Notwithstanding America totally tanking (and I doubt it will tank rapidly apart from terrorist attacks), I believe July will see a good pullback, although I feel it will only be a rally in a bear market.

    Now let's look for some logic in the June/July reversals over the last 10 years (maybe you guys would like to chip in and see if you can spot some trends)

    One piece of logic that comes to mind (and I didn't have time to look into it last night before my eyes started closing).
    Perhaps the first 10 to 14 days in June are significant.
    Lets say this period sees a retraction in the market. The average punter is losing, wouldn't it be logical for him to sell of some of his stocks for a tax loss?

    If the reverse occurs, as it has for the last 5 years, he's making profits. Why sell off when he's making profits? This would hardly help his tax situation, and he's sure as hell not gonna offer them cheaper than the market price!

    This is well worth looking into for those who are interested. If we can predict market movements for the next 6 weeks after 10 to 14 days into June, wouldn't it give us another great little tool for our armoury.

    Comments welcome, this may be coincidence, but if coincidence can be linked with logic we are half way there.


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