CVI 0.00% 0.3¢ cvi energy corporation limited

think laterally...aim higher...look longer...

  1. 15,276 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 45
    It seems so many are concerned with short term issues...

    Tomorrows open, Friday's weeks trading ranges, etc, etc...

    How much will I bank this week?


    Need to aim so much higher in my view.

    We are more or less at the pointy end of years and years of ground work by Smyth and the team...the hard work is finally paying off, projects are landing at our feet left right and centre and others are already being actively progressed, with a current drilling programme at Catabola.

    There are times when the market does get it such times we either back ourselves, or we collapse under the pressure of the mob and follow suit.

    I have never been one to follow the

    I feel there exists a confidence issue here...either people just do not believe what Smyth is telling us...or...they simply think it is too good to be true.

    Frankly, I find it quite strange that people could question CVI's...and in particular Smyth's...track record over the last 6 months. Whilst timing was not always exact, virtually everything they said they would do they have done.


    The only real dead weight would appear to be Cameroon, which it appears according Maher (reading between the lines of Smyth’s comments), may not be quite as straight forward as was originally thought?

    If so...much better to cut a dead weight before you take it on, rather than persist with a marginal asset.

    Other than this, everything that has been flagged to take place has in fact the regard, do people really expect CVI will just say yes to projects requiring 10's of millions of our investment dollars without the appropriate levels of due diligence?

    I would hope not.

    I think it is quite sad that so many shareholders (traders?), want instant gratification...and in CVI's case want anything they can get that will give CVI a definitive asset measure, regardless of what this might mean down the track.

    Whilst fair enough, I for one would hate to see the company rushed into an asset for the sake of it..,securing concrete agreements on an asset that will eventually turn into concrete shoes.

    These offshore concessions are where the big players play and whilst Total, Shell, etc...might not blink at a US$100m expenditure commitment on 3 or 4 such blocks, knowing one will likely prove successful...for a small fry like CVI the decision of which one/s and why can be make a make or break decision!

    If they were simply after share price appreciation, they would simply take what ever they get...then talk them up to the max. The fact they are being so selective over blocks most would give their eye teeth for, confirms both the legitimacy of CVI's activities well as their obvious status in the Angolan process.

    Remember, the Angolan offshore concessions are big-boys-toys, elephant country prospects...massive rewards to be had as evidenced by numerous multi-hundred million barrel discoveries in the region, but with such targets come massive sunk cost risks...take on the wrong ones and you are committed to 10's of millions of dollars chasing dust.

    Terminal for a small company like CVI.

    Given the choice, I would rather see Conrad and crew take as long as they want to sort out the good from the bad with these blocks...I suspect however they will have a set timeline?

    Lets not forget the onshore...which is still very good...but gaining say 20-30% of a potential 200-400m gross endowment, whilst significant, upside will always be limited.

    On the other hand, 4 offshore blocks immediately suggest a minimum 2b barrel likely endowment...these are numbers typically only looked at by the majors.

    But what percentages? This is perhaps the million, or is it the billion dollar question? And whilst asking such questions, perhaps we should ask why offshore...and why CVI?

    I suspect the extent of offshore offered is clearly a surprise to CVI, so apart from the new Angolan presence on the register, both in CVI and indeed Fortitude, there really must be something in this for the Angolans (Sonongal?) to bother offering CVI what they have...interests in four...not one, but FOUR offshore fields?

    I have my views and suspect the expert advisory board is central to the cause here...but perhaps more on this another day?

    Anyway, we are getting so many clues here from Smyth, if the market wants to behave like stunned mullet and miss the point...forgetting 3 seconds after buying why they bought...

    Bought what?


    Then that is there problem.

    Bought what?

    Seriously though, if others do not see what is to me as clear as day...then either I am way off base here...or...the market has collectively lost it's way.

    Yes...I am saying the market is wrong...absolutely!

    Mind you, they are being well and truly molested in their views by a concerted effort to range trade the stock on the back of the obvious retail interest...if only they would mature, even if for just a day or two, they would all be so much better off.

    Look at what happened Monday...sellers took a rest and the manipulators ran out of fuel to drive it down.

    Simple cause and effect actually...still the market will do what the market will do!

    So...some see what others do not.

    For me, the more I dig, the more I understand what we have here...and whilst I might sound a little excited after today's announcements, I personally feel this will be the best investment I have ever made.

    We turned a big ugly corner today at a fundamental such I am now in a very comfortable place with my holdings...I have no doubt the market will eventually catch on.

    Late as usual.


arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.