BTR 0.00% 21.0¢ blackthorn resources limited

the story is not over yet.....

  1. 2,377 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 169
    I just went through my old postings and I found one that I wrote on the 28th December 2008. Subject was: The story is not over yet....

    How right I was....

    I think that Scott is attaching some importance regarding the release of possible good news. As we have seen in the past sometimes good announcements had absolutely no positive impact on the SP just because the timing was not optimal.

    Therefore I have the feeling that we will not hear to much in the next few weeks. Just from a timing view it would be better to wait till BHP has made its decision regarding financing of the next drilling campaign and then release the name of a possible JV partner. Then we may see a positive news flow through the year 2010.

    Might look like this:

    February: BHP goes for phase 4
    March/April: JV partner for Perkoa
    Mai/June: further drilling results Mokopane and/or Mumbwa
    July/August: progress reports from Perkoa
    Sept/Oktober: more and hopefully good drilling results from Mumbwa/Mushingashi
    November/Dezember: further progress reports from Perkoa

    2011: start production at Perkoa, feasibilty study for gold tenements, case study for Mumbwa (further drillings). Do not forget: Rome was not build in a day.

    In my view it makes no sense to push the SP for example with 2 good announcement to a substantial higher level. It is better to split the good news then the effect on the SP is more sustainable. As I already mentioned before, I think the decision to go for phase 4 at Mumbwa is worth something like 20-30 cents per share. The announcement of an interesting JV Partner at Perkoa at least another 30-40 cents. Then we would be somewhere around 1.20-1.50 what is in my view the the minimum fair value at this stage of development of the company (might be the case mid 2010 and therefore this would be my - relatively conservative - price target for mid 2010 = 1.20-1.50).

    Good progress reports from Perkoa and further good drilling results from Mumbwa should then bring the SP on a 2 A$ level. Start of production at Perkoa (2011) and good first results should then push the SP further direction north. 4 dollar is surely not impossible within 2011-2013 just based on Perkoa. Mumbwa is a completely another story with "no limit" potential in my view.

    By the way we should not forget 2 things:

    a) the gold tenements around Perkoa might turn out to be more interesting then assumed till today. A few millions of net profit were already more then interesting. I compared a few months ago some other companies producing gold in Burkina Faso and I came to the conclusion that it might be possible to make some 5-15 m A$ of profit there. Already such a profit would justify a higher SP then today
    b) Mokopane in the last years was never in the focus of the company. Imagine a possible sale of Mokopane (10-20 m ??) and then Scott would use the proceeds for the financing of Perkoa or for the development of the gold tenements around Perkoa.

    It think today (just 1 day left for 2009) is a good day to make a conclusion/summary regarding BTR. From a fundamental view and if everything works fine then BTR is surely worth substantially more then the roughly 70 m A$ as of today. How much is depending on different factors (zinc price for example, JV partner, BHP and so one) but it will be more then the value of today.

    Mumbwa is a grey box with an immense potential and could turn out to become a once a life chance and could be worth hundreds of millions.

    I wish everybody a good start into 2010 and a Happy New Year.

    Let's hope that we will have a lot of fun and will make a lot of money !

 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.