MUL multiemedia limited

the report, page-2

  1. 4,941 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 147
    Hi Yak,

    One of the keys to the report is the treatment of the iPStar satellite proposition.

    If the iPStar assumptions are wrong, then the MUL numbers will also be wrong.

    What I do not see from the report is the volatility factor (ie: sensitivity to changes in assumptions, etc).

    On the basis of the report, it would seem thats the iPStar satellite proposition is a likely real, and apparent competitive threat to MUL in 2004 and beyond.

    The question, therefore, is whether IPStar's footprint will be greater than the report's assumed 70%.

    According to Comms Day of 7th August, iPStar will be launched during 1Q04, and will have "an aggregate capacity of 40 gigabits per second, compared to a conventional satellite capacity of 2-3Gbps".

    Quoting from Dr. Dumrong Kasemset, Shin Satellite’s CEO (ie: the parent entity to iPSTAR), Comms Day noted that "(according to Dr Kasemset) By beefing up the capacity by 20 times, we now have the ability to cater to all broadband users in the Asia-Pacific region.”

    Quoting from the Findlay report:
    "We....believe further price deflation for broadband services is inevitable with the market price likely to
    bottom-out in calendar 2004 when iPStar 1 is launched in 1Q2004. This is the world.s largest commercial
    satellite @ 6,775 kgs (Both C1 & NSS6 around 4,725 kgs)".

    The Findlay report then noted:

    "With Singtel-Optus.s C1 satellite 85% pre-sold from June 2003 and Telstra.s satellite capacity available from 1Q2004, Multiemedia have a 9 months.window-of-opportunity. tosell capacity on 1-to-3 transponders".

    Regarding the iPStar solution, the Findlay report noted:

    "IPStar (sic) 1.s configurations may be a superior satellite to NSS6 owing to there being 100 spot beams vs 6 spot beams but operational delivery will be the key. Multiemedia claim a superior VSAT terminalinfrastructure for 2-way communication using PCMA (paired carrier multiple access) reducing bandwidth by 50% on the downlink space segment costs".

    The iPStar satellite's footprint is, however, more likely to cover 100% of Australia (including Tasmania), and New Zealand.

    The question for MUL, therefore, is to what extent this advantages the take-up of broadband, or hinders MUL's ability to exploit a potentially diminishing window of opportunity (ie: 9 months, by Findlay's own estimation).
 
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