MEO 0.00% 0.0¢ meo australia limited

I'm compelled to reply here Ya as though I love and value your...

  1. 95 Posts.
    I'm compelled to reply here Ya as though I love and value your contribution on here I must dissagree with your statement that MEO would farm out the full 70 percent at this stage.

    Post drilling-success possibly but just not now. Downside of not hitting gas is obvious but to have 20 percent of this on success would be pay-dirt of epic proportions. You could say the pre to post drilling value of Artemis assuming success would be 10 to one hundred times it's current value.

    For example say Artemis is currently valued at say $200 mill by market, post drilling success this would be re-rated by market to use a Jurgen expression to $2 billion extreme worst case scenario, to up to say $20 billion or more, best case using my calcs from the past of $7.5 bill per TCF x 12 recoverable= $ 90 bil revenue total for Artemis.

    What would a company pay for $90 billion revenue?

    I don't have an answer for that, but welcome contribution to that idea.

    I do know MEO's stake of 20 % would leave them with $18 bill rev, and the value assigned to that stake would increase in kind probably at least 1000% percent from here to theoretical post drilling success.

    IE: MEO market cap head's from the $200/$300 mill level currently to $2/$3 bill level come positive drill results in Feb 2010. So from $.63 to $6.30 potentially by March next year or at least $3.15 if you want to try to stay very conservative (think Karoon right here for reference and yes Artemis could be as big if not bigger than Poseidon).

    After that point they could sell for cash if the major or super major had the coin to spare, and they could take their several billion $$$ in exchange for 20 % of Artemis and use it to fund their Tassie Shoal project at that point which seems like a logical progression of MEO's goals. I'm sure they'd like to do this as it would get them cashed up and they then wouldn't have to contribute capex to developing Artemis which would be a headache given the funding they'd have to come up with for a project possibly half of Gorgon @ 20 percent.

    That seems the way forward from here. MEO has also intimated quite strongly all along they are looking for a farm-in partner to take 50 percent and leave them with 20 percent. I think this extra time is due dilligence ect involved in an agreement such as this farm-in which I could imagine could be A. complex, and B. quite complex.

    But seriously, think about project lead times ie scoping study, feasablitly ect in these projects: they always take long lead times.

    I'm as impatient as anyone here, but it seems Jurgen and the company has responded to the dissapproval of shareholders in the delay over the past month, enacted in the SP fall from 80 to 50, and has now set firm and achievable goals for closing this farm in partner with dates ect, so you are now seeing a renewed confidence back in the SP now the company has selected their preferred partner and are now just seemingly crossing the i's and dotting the t's on the contracts and specifications within them.

    We may see new highs this week as MEO holds final meetings and possibly puts out a cheeky update or two with a litany of positivity in the closing of their sale to their farm-in partner, but I bet you my life savings (oops I already have!) if that doesn't happen we'll see new 52 week highs in November as the pressure cooker of excitement will give the Melb Cup Carnival a run for it's money.

    BTW I was on board So You Think and backing Cummings yesterday as a fairly rank outsider in the Cox and feel that is a good omen for my cup campaign this year. I feel my share-trades and punting are all aligning. Famous last words I know, but I'll see you all at the finish line this year!

    Nov will be a magic month for MEO, I can just feel it. I want to see it over a dollar a share as the interest continues to build. This is still the best kept secret on the ASX IMO. The share price simply does not even mildy reflect what we are sitting on in Artemis...YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ;-)

 
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