CBA 0.50% $84.94 commonwealth bank of australia.

the market

  1. 1,383 Posts.
    I hate to distract everyone by talking about the market, but it is some time since I made a post.

    The last really significant post I made was in mid 2000 when I said the XAO was in the middle of a "diagonal fifth" that would finish the Great Bull Market and result in a correction to at least 2500.

    The diagonal fifth completed on 28/6/01, when I sold most of my stocks. The XAO then began a correction which is well into its third leg, with a target that is at least the 1998 low of 2460-2500 - but is more likely the 1994-6 top of 2330.

    The question now is whether this correction is part of a much larger correction, which will see big bear rallies like sep01 to mar02, but will not see a new high for a decade; or whether the bull market will resume after the low.

    I incline to the pessimistic view. I think we still have to see the reverse income effect of the stockmarket collapse play through, and the real estate collapse which almost inevitably follows a stock market top by 1-3 years is still due. All the people who were told to put their money into the market for their retirement still have to pay the piper. The banks are still way too high - as marketmad says, "Layoffs, writedowns, and losses stand ahead. Have no doubt, the banking sector is very high risk".

    Good trading - I'm up $10k on the fortnight which is OK (BHP, RIO and TLS shorts).

    By the way, can someone tell me how to make a new post with no stock symbol?
 
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