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The market situation

  1. redabyss

    1,383 Posts.

    The US did in fact make quite a good reversal on Mon/Tue. The dow made a good double bottom, the SPX bounced off mini H&S target, both of them poked their heads outside the bollinger band and withdrew. As this is the least bearish scenario I could think of, I repeat the US has probably bottomed.

    However - as would be expected, the bears are selling pretty heavily into rallies and its hard to say whether this one can go anywhere. My best guess is that SPX will make it back to the 880 neckline, Dow 8250. From there we'll see which of several Elliott counts is gonna happen.

    The preferred one is a continued rally up the wall of worry, for 6 weeks or so. The bearish one is the decline begins again - and if that happens it will be a big one.

    In the meantime most Australian stocks are chafing to get up off supports and bottoms. They are not going to break through those supports unless they get a big shock from somewhere, so the prognosis is mild upside.

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