QAN 3.05% $5.72 qantas airways limited

The Clarke & Dawe effect - Timing Tip 2

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    QAN move to begin by next Tuesday because of www.abc.net.au/7.30/s552143.htm .

    ...

    MAY/HSP were suggested on 3/5/02 and have moved appropriately. My Hot Copper post of that date follows (forgot to mention the CML weekly chart downturn started with http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s516274.htm .)

    "In line with my Top 10 Timing Tips of six months ago, I'm putting MAY and HSP on close watch for a turning point for today plus or minus a couple of trading days. The simple reason is tonight's skit on the ABC where Clarke and Dawe made fun of medical insurance
    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s546444.htm .

    The previous finance related skit was on 11/4/02, It was one day before the banks started climbing again http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s529352.htm .

    From 1/11/01:

    Tip 2 - Clarke and Dawe

    The comedians Clarke and Dawe have arguably the best share tipping record I've come across, even though their skits are not meant as advice and one needs to read between the lines at times.

    How can this be? Well, great comedy requires great timing and a comedian's subject matter often concerns what the public perceives to be the tallest poppies or the most down-trodden gutter dwellers. In the stock market, this equates to the sell on highs (with volume) and buy on lows (with volume) trading method.

    The pair appear from time to time on the ABC's "7.30 Report" and I try to watch out for them. Having perused most of their stuff for the last 18 months, I think their record speaks for itself:

    25/2/00 - BMC Media.Com - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/stories/s103487.htm -
    Clarke and Dawe speculate on the new economy - BMC peaks.

    18/4/00 - Telstra - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/stories/s111471.htm - Clarke and Dawe on Telstra - TLS breaks support and declines for 18 months.

    23/6/00 - Qantas - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s143211.htm - Clarke and Dawe on airlines and frequent flying - The majors like QAN and AIZ didn't do well for the next 18 months. On the other hand, HAZ didn't have a comparable frequent flyer program and its share price more than doubled in the next six months and it was taken over shortly after.

    25/8/00 - Caltex - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s167824.htm - Clarke & Dawe: the politics of petrol - They were three days late picking the top for CTX for the next 14 months.

    29/3/01 - ANZ Bank - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s268647.htm - Clarke and
    Dawe (on the banks' conversion to social obligation) - Four trading days late in picking the bottom for the major banks, which all enjoyed spectacular gains for the next three months. The majors are still above
    those lows.

    14/6/01 - One.Tel Limited - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s313017.htm - John
    Clarke and Bryan Dawe on One.Tel - This was harder to pick, given the company was kaput. However, I loosely interpreted it as meaning that ONE would be the last of the major wipeouts where there was essentially no
    interest expressed in the now worthless physical assets, unlike PAS and APT for example, which could even relist.

    28/06/01 - Mayne Nicklaus - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s320730.htm - Clarke
    and Dawe (with Michael Wooldridge) - Not a skit about a specific share, but MAY would be the nearest pick. MAY didn't do much good for the next three months, despite the market's love affair with the takeover and CEO and health-biotec.

    5/7/01 - Lang Corporation - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s324381.htm - Clarke
    and Dawe (with Peter Reith). Once again, no specific stock, but the closest one would have to be LAC. It was just about to form a top and has been basically declining since.

    2/8/01 - Pacific Hydro and Great Southern Plantations -
    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s340111.htm - Clarke and Dawe ponder the environment - Yet again, no specific stocks mentioned, so it wasn't a strong signal, but it turned out to be an excellent time to offload Kyoto hopeful stocks like PHY and GTP for a while.

    28/08/01 - Telstra - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s351593.htm - Clarke and
    Dawe on Telstra - In part because TLS was knocked so much on 18/4/00, this episode was thought to have been a back handed compliment. The stock has
    since been higher more than it's been lower.

    20/9/01 - QAN and British Airways - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s371737.htm -
    Clarke Dawe winging it with Ansett - Ansett is not a listed stock and international travel was obviously the main concern after the WTC incident, so I looked at QAN, BAY (British airways) and the U.S. majors. Clarke and Dawe timed their "tip" perfectly and the rebound was spectacular, coming off decade lows for some.

    ...

    Just to clarify ... "turning point" means either up or down, but normally the reverse of whatever trend was in place (which would be back up for MAY and down for HSP on the weekly charts). It normally applies to the most significant stock in the area being lampooned, which my guess last night was MAY, so it's the main one I'm focussing on, to be true to the method.

    However, RMD is the health stock with the biggest break today. HSP was mentioned because it would appear to have relatively weak fundamentals.
    Comsec recently bought in, a director has been selling and the stock was bought up as an alternative to MAY over the last two years and had gone up a very long way."

    ...

    Disclaimer: I don't own any of the shares mentioned.
 
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