the chicago fed national activity index

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    From IGM News Feed

    [THE CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX] for July came in -0.06 vs a prior -0.38 (revised from -0.46). The 3-month average of the index came in at -0.29 vs a prior -0.54 (revised from -0.60). The Chicago Fed estimates a reading below -0.70 in the 3-month average after a period of expansion signals a growing risk of recession, while a reading above 0.70 after 2 years of expansion would signal a rising risk of inflation. In fact, the 3-month average topped out so far for this expansion at 0.32 in May of 2010, high enough to signal an end to recession, but not to suggest any inflation risk at all. Both the current index and the 3-month average have been negative since April of this year.

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