XSO 0.21% 2,872.8 s&p/asx small ordinaries

The Brains Trust-2019

  1. 7,394 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 160
    Welcome all.

    Thought I would start a new Brains Trust thread as the old thread has been running 2 years now without an update. Up to you folk whether we continue on this new thread or stick with the old thread.

    Anyway, the important thing to remember is no matter what the market does, whether it rises, falls, or stays rangebound, it's WHAT YOU DO that is important.

    Just a couple of notes................. this globalisation thingy, seems to be throwing a 'spanner in the works' to traditional analysis. An example is when measuring Debt to GDP levels. As we around here all know, there is a great deal of media reporting of our housing real-estate  debt to GDP level, particularly how high it is to historical levels. Well, what if a some,  or a reasonable portion of that debt, that is in housing,  is from foreign buyers residing or earning, all or in part, their incomes or assests in a foreign country. Should we not add part of that foreign countries GDP level to our calculations of debt to GDP levels for better analysis?  Seems we should.

    The same also applies to companies earning greater amounts overseas. The old NTA analysis, that in the past was important, may well be better replaced by debt to income level as a better form of analysis.

    And on China. Has anyone noted some of the news stories coming from China. The placing of a robotic device on the Moon, with plans to send astronauts there............the genetic engineering of humans to produce designer babies................... the first physical settlement of Chinese Yuan denominated oil futures contract ...........the reports that China has now become a Scientific and Technological Superpower, producing for the first time more science papers than the US.

    We can see the trend there.

    And whht about the news from the US. Trump and his wall, Trump and the wall, Trump and the wall................

    We can see the trend there. lol!

    and a quick final note to @VVX565 as you were asking how the guage risk on or off in the markets (and I replied with a piece about US dollar vs AUD)...............I just remembered that I had read another way to guage risk was by comparing the front month pricing of either call or put options, to their recent historical levels . You may need to Google  around, as I have lost my bookmark to the article as it is not important for me. You have to remember with a lot of this stuff, that it is for larger funds, not us, as we have the luxury of nimbleness, via our small amounts that we trade compared to the big funds industry. We operate differently, and that is one of the reasons charting works for us, as it's not the charting that gives us the advantage, it is the liquidity of the daily volume vs. our small position size, that allows us to succeed. Our techniques are different.

    Anyway, good luck everyone and may the trading/investing force be with us in 2019



    .
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.