XMD 1.33% 9,792.9 s&p/asx midcap 50

Hi Rhodes. I don't post much these days other than a couple of...

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    Hi Rhodes. I don't post much these days other than a couple of long term stocks I'm holding, but I did look at NCM a little while back. It's too a volatile chart and driven by the gold price so I'm not sure I'd trade it on EW at the moment.

    That said, I'm looking at a monthly chart for my EW and would start the count from the Dec2013 low. (Pre-2013 it did follow EW quite closely). This gives a Wave 1 to July 2016 peak, then an unusual but still legitimate 38.2% retrace/consolidation. On this count we are now in a Wave 3. You could argue a pause on this count at 100% extension of $36.59. It's a bit too steep for me for this to be a Wave 3 though, not convinced.

    On the other hand, you could also argue a Wave B, with it approaching 78.6% retrace of the Nov 2010 All Time High. I highly doubt it based on what the gold price is doing but it's still a legitimate wave count at the moment.

    I think I'd rather trade it actually as a pennant breakout. With the run into the pennant from $10.71 in Nov 2015 to $27.20 in July 2016. It then consolidated and then 100% of the breakout level (Sept 2018 low of $18.58) gives you a current peak of $32,84. It's past this, but around about at the moment.

    Call it $33, but maybe up to $36 if enough momentum, for the current peak before consolidating at least if not a pullback for a fair period. Not sure I'd make a call on the next leg beyond that at this time.

    I basically agree with your call on levels anyway, although perhaps on a different logic.

 
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