1. Most Discussed
  2. Gainers & Losers


  1. nickoo

    1,816 Posts.

    The first stage of the bear will be a gradual decline in PE's and slight increases in div yields. The economy will still be plodding on at this stage.

    The second stage is where the debt bubble bursts- this is a gradual process which will end in the total decimation of leveraged assets. The economy will follow assets prices in the death spiral downwards- initially at a slow pace. Company earnings will start heading south. Businesses which sell discretionary goods/services will face a monumental drop in demand- most will go bust. People still see a light at the end of the tunnel - there is still hope.

    THe final stage is capitulation. This is where the base if built for the next bull market. This is where the majority that have held on uptill now bail out. They can't face the capital loses any further. Asset prices reach a level where they trade at 3/4 times earnings. Yields on investments are in execss of 20%. This is the time where those that cashed up before and during stage one pounce.

    They know a bargain when they see it! Welcome to the infant bull!!

    We're currently mid way through stage one.

    Stage two will start over the next two years, and last atleast a decade.

    Stage three is still toooo far away to even think about.

    The basic message is this:

    This bear market is still young. Don't get conned into a false sense of security with high yielding stocks- thinking that the yield will ensure they maintain their
    capital values. The goal posts will move!! Those dividends will almost not be maintained in future years... and you will face a capital loss.

    Buyer beware!!!

    The bear is young!!!

Before making any financial decisions based on what you read, always consult an advisor or expert.

The HotCopper website is operated by Report Card Pty Ltd. Any information posted on the website has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and as such, you should before acting on the information or advice, consider the appropriateness of the information or advice in relation to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please be aware that any information posted on this site should not be considered to be financial product advice.

From time to time comments aimed at manipulating other investors may appear on these forums. Posters may post overly optimistic or pessimistic comments on particular stocks, in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for management to moderate all posts so some misleading and inaccurate posts may still appear on these forums. If you do have serious concerns with a post or posts you should report a Terms of Use Violation (TOU) on the link above. Unless specifically stated persons posting on this site are NOT investment advisors and do NOT hold the necessary licence, or have any formal training, to give investment advice.


Thank you for visiting HotCopper

We have detected that you are running ad blocking software.

HotCopper relies on revenue generated from advertisers. Kindly disable your ad blocking software to return to the HotCopper website.

I understand, I have disabled my ad blocker. Let me in!

Need help? Click here for support.