CTL 0.00% 0.9¢ centennial mining limited

The trouble with your guesstimates, SS, is that they are just...

  1. 2,263 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 410
    The trouble with your guesstimates, SS, is that they are just plain misleading. In the 'fake news' category. Like your esteemed POTUS.
    Firstly - you claim 7609 oz production for this quarter. Company guidance remains 4500 max. If it had changed upwards by that much, they would have had to inform the market.
    Second - you say costs of $1000 per ounce are being reached. You reckon a tiny little operation with trucking costs mine to mill of $275 per ounce can ever operate the rest of their operation at $725 per ounce? I don't think so.
    Thirdly - a mill reline, new gearbox and other mill component changes were carried out this quarter. This was flagged in the March quarterly. Ignored by you. Capital cost of that? Down time impacting production?
    Fourthly - Perth Mint Ask price $1656 per ounce. Nobody gets the Ask for dore bars. Miners get 98.6%, less refining charges. Plus there is the cost to ship it to Perth and insure it on the journey.
    All in, it'll be a great achievement if CTL are clearing $200 per oz on 4500 ounces this quarter. I.e. a free cash flow of $900,000. Existing debt has to be serviced and paid down from this.
    Can't see anyone loaning more on these numbers, and if anyone did the interest rate would be at least 10%. That means a CR and dilution, if further working capital is needed, ahem, 'going forward'.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add CTL (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.