TAM 1.28% 7.7¢ tanami gold nl

Tam What's it worth

  1. 887 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 140
    This is a question, not a statement.

    From last quarterly report.

    Estimated reserves - Ounces
    Measured : 610,000
    Indicated : 1,001,000
    ===================
    .... 1,611,000
    Inferred : 1,133,000
    -------------------------------
    Total ... 2,744,000
    ==================

    Let's assume say that the measured and indicated are about right, and say 1/3 of the inferred is reasonably reliable
    That gives a resource of about, say, 2,000.000 ounces.
    At current gold price of about $2,234, let;s say $2,000 will be achievable.

    Value of reserves, say 2,000 x 2,000,000 = $4,000,000,000., $4 billion say.
    Tam share is 60% free carried. ie. $2.4 billion.

    About 1.25 billion shares in the company

    So, 2,4 divided by 1,25 = 1.92

    ie. by this calculation, a share is wirth about $1.90 from a realisation of the resource, probably conservatively, if it all works out in the end..
    Of course allowances for risk of all kinds of unforeseen possible problems.
    Factor in about 50% because of a long time scale and possible risks, say then about $1.
    That's over 10 times the current value.

    What are opinions on this?
    Given the large upside using ths kind of calculation rating TAM as worth holding out for $1/share.
    What is the error, if any, and why only $0.08 sp?

    WIll be pleased to hear why this is wrong or a reasonable guess..
    Last edited by pesa: 01/03/21
 
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