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taking bets on a war??

  1. downside

    5,342 posts.
    Time Runs Out for Saddam at the Betting Exchange
    Tue Feb 11,10:19 AM ET

    DUBLIN (Reuters) - While global markets fret over the prospects of war in Iraq, an Irish Internet trading exchange is doing nicely offering futures contracts on how long Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein will hold on to power.

    Dublin-based Tradesports, better known for taking punts on soccer, allows investors to bet whether President Bush will be re-elected, who will win the Oscars -- even how much snow will fall in New York.


    But the hot contract is just how numbered Saddam's days really are.

    On Monday the ask price on a contract specifying Saddam will not be Iraqi leader by March 31 was $40.0 -- meaning the market thinks Saddam is 40 percent likely no longer to be in power at the end of next month.

    The likelihood of him being out of office by end-April was put at 68 percent, end-May 78 percent, and end-June 84 percent.

    "It's like any other trading -- you buy and sell, and with every piece of new or additional information you see the market adjusting," Tradesports Chief Executive John Delaney told Reuters.

    Tradesports has traded around 21,000 Saddam contracts since late September.

    If Saddam's survival prospects look poor, President Bush's seem distinctly brighter. The contract on Bush being re-elected in 2004 puts the odds at 66 percent.

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    anyone got the volatility and life factors yet..LOL
    Good Luck

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