Syria - What Next?

  1. Osi
    7,750 Posts.
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    At the time of this post there is a lot of conflicting information.

    1. Lines of control are largely stable for the moment, probably because the US has not fully withdrawn from northern Syria.

    2. Discussion of Manbij may be a distraction given that the Kurdish YPG have largely left and the city is defended by the Sunni Arab led Manbij Military Council.

    3. Assad's Government, Iran and Russia all have slightly different agendas in Syria. Russia and Iran may accept a 40 annexation of Syrian territory by Turkey (around it's borders) but Assad and most Syrians who are not aligned with Turkey will not.

    4. Enter Egypt and the UAE seeking to negotiate a "political" resolution between Assad and the largely Kurdish/Arab/ Assyrian alliance.

    - We can only speculate each party's next move however neither Egypt or Saudi Arabia are fans of Erdogan's (extreme end) Muslim Brotherhood agenda and expansionist goals. Neither is Iran. [ note: views within what is called the Muslim Brotherhood vary from mild to Salafi extremist]. Jordan is also improving diplomatic links with Assad.

    - Egypt's Sisi is argues that a political solution and a single national army is necessary. For that there needs to be a discussion table and a shift away from Assad's dictatorial "terms". We can but wait and see if Sisi argues the obvious, that partnering the northern administration would strengthen Syria's indigenous position against a wide range of nefarious foreign agendas.

    - Will Assad and the Kurdish led alliance do as Sisi suggests (which is not what Sisi himself does )? In any case nobody can sensibly treat a (thus far) victorious fighting force of 60,000 as though they are an inferior and defeated foe. Assad has thus far lacked common sense on this front.

    5. In the history of this region, those who worked with the Kurds realised successful outcomes. Those who worked against them did not. Iran realises this and may seek to use current developments to mute Kurdish independence causes within its own borders while supporting Kurdish led initiatives in surrounding regions which fall short of independence calls.

    6. I note that Iranian PMUs have been working (to some extent) with the YPG against ISIS in the Iraq / Syria border regions. I don't have information on whether or not Iran is continuing to support PKK hardliners in Turkey (on one hand) while touting idiotic Astana resolutions on the other.

    There are limits to what we can reasonably speculate on.


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