Sydney houses and apartments analysis

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    Hi everyone,

    I have collected real estate agents' data on houses and apartments in key suburbs in Sydney from 2014-2019 and stratified the data.

    For more details check out my website - https://goldfund.com.au/market-commentary

    Look forward to your comments here on this thread.

    None of my work should be taken as financial advice. Please consult a financial professional before making any decisions.

    Here are my key findings:

    SydneyProperty Prices Decline – Longer, Deeper and More to Come… We Just Used theWrong Figures

    8thMay 2019

    Key Points
    - Government,media and general public are being told regularly over the last year of fallingproperty prices in Sydney and Melbourne, when prior to that the consensus wason rosy price forecasts. However, this change of narrative came too latebecause they have been dropping well before mid-2018.
    - Theuse of aggregate property statistics caused smoothing of price movements. Whenprice data is split by number of bedrooms, the price movement shows a bleakerpicture.
    -
    Hotsuburbs such as Chatswood and Hurstville, previously driven by high demand fromforeign Chinese buyers, are now witnessing substantial price drops. The trendshows that the drops began since as early as 2016.
    - T
    hoseholding property who are anxious about their financial position should seekindependent financial advice regarding how to finance their loans or to sellbefore it declines further.

    SydneyApartment Prices – Topping Patterns Observed, Cliff Ahead?

    12thJune 2019

    Key Points

    · TheSydney apartment/unit market is seeing a topping pattern, with prices havingpeaked across major suburbs between 2015-2018, and are now invariably headingdownwards as a result of sharply decreasing sales volume.

    · Insuburbs previously considered to have strong demand and hence be expected to berobust, the average aggregate prices have fallen 2-18% from their peak. Whenstratifying the data by bedrooms, the price declines are more pronounced.

    · Salesvolume across key suburbs has sharply declined and the time taken for a sale tobe made is noticeably higher in 2019, with many vendors waiting an average of100+ days for a sale to be completed.

    · Despitethe Morrison government’s incentives and the RBA rate cut, prices are expectedto fall over the longer term due to the overwhelming force of a weakeningeconomy, lower consumer confidence and mortgage fatigue.

 
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