laughed at the dutchrudder reference. thank you zack and miri.
all forecasts are in fact guesses - but not baseless ones. and thats the key point when considering research.
its for that reason that they;ve 50% risk weighted their dcf estimate.
if BUD hits the 1500 fy18 rate at that margin (and subsequent targets) the stock would have an implied value of 42c/share
nothing wrong with being cautious.
but equally, the appraisal is simply aimed at being a first pass guide to a possible earnings profile.
interesting that he used the same number i suggested 6 weeks ago of 1500 for first year f/t equivalent units.
worth bearing in mind there's also no reason why the company couldnt for example hit 2000 units in the first year if there's a lot of retail units reflecting that lower $250 net earnings margin theyve used
you have to triangulate yoru way to a valuations through multiple assumptions with associated probability scenarios
overall Im quite sanguine about the note as it reflects my own back of the envelope projections
BUD Price at posting:
9.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held