SPI, Rally or Dead cat?

  1. 1,356 Posts.
    SPI quarterly pivot lows are 2895 and 2890 (sycom)
    the low yesterday was 2889, which happens to be the '34th day.'

    On 34 days i wolud normally look for a 13 day countertrend rally to take place?

    2961 is the yearly pivot low, we are trading below it but it also is the 3 day high (2961). So there is alot of resistance at this level.

    My critical price this week was 2979.
    2976 is the .618 of the fall from 3029 to 2889.

    Now what i'm looking for is a close above 2961 and a take out of 2979. I know today in early trading traders will be fading the open that could drive the price all the way beck to 2911-17, but i also know that we might be in for a rally that could retrace .618 of the entire 34 day range that could take the SPI back upto 3081.

    3027 will be a sticking point (the oct pivot 50%) but a move upto 3081 is .fib ratio .618 and its also the the Sept monthly 50% ratio.

    You wont be hearing "dead cat" from me. But of course things need to be confirmed along the way for that to happen, but it 'could'.

    Of course failure at 2961 needs to be accounted for and i'll stick with 2780 as the down target.

    Thats how i'm treating this market NOW!
 
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