PEN 16.0% 10.5¢ peninsula energy limited

some p/e for thought

  1. 6,029 Posts.
    Thought I might run some very rough numbers in preparation for DFS outcomes

    Assumptions -

    - U price of $53 and $74 per pound
    - Production costs of $26 per pound inc tax at spot $53
    - Production costs of $30 per pound at $74 spot
    - Production amount of 1.5 mil and 3 mil after ramp up
    - Development costs $75 mil less cash contribution $25 mil leaves debt at say $50 mil


    At 1.5 mil pa

    Net income $27 per pound or $40.5 mil pa

    P/E of 5 = $202.5 mil
    P/E of 7 = $283 mil
    P/E of 10 = $400.500 mil

    less debt 50

    5 - $152.5 mil
    7 - $233 mil
    10 - 350.500 mil

    Fully diluted shares 3200 mil

    SP at 5 4.7 c
    st 7 8.8c
    at 10 10.9 c


    Ramp up to 3 mil pound pa

    you get 9.5 at PE 5
    17.9 at Pe of 7
    21.9 at Pe of 10


    NOW

    Using $74 U price

    1.5 mil pound

    Pe 5 MC $330
    PE 7 = $462 mil
    Pe 10 = $660 mil

    Less debt $50

    SP at 5 8.75 c 7 12.875c and 10 = 19 c

    3 mil pound

    PE 5 Sp 17.6 c
    PE 7 Sp 26c
    PE 10 Sp 38 c


    Huge range - will be very interesting to see what happens

    I feel its unlikely that the spot price will have any relevance to the DFS

    Long term U is still in the high 60c's










    3 mil pounds
 
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