some p/e for thought

Thought I might run some very rough numbers in preparation for DFS outcomes

Assumptions -

- U price of $53 and $74 per pound
- Production costs of $26 per pound inc tax at spot $53
- Production costs of $30 per pound at $74 spot
- Production amount of 1.5 mil and 3 mil after ramp up
- Development costs $75 mil less cash contribution $25 mil leaves debt at say $50 mil


At 1.5 mil pa

Net income $27 per pound or $40.5 mil pa

P/E of 5 = $202.5 mil
P/E of 7 = $283 mil
P/E of 10 = $400.500 mil

less debt 50

5 - $152.5 mil
7 - $233 mil
10 - 350.500 mil

Fully diluted shares 3200 mil

SP at 5 4.7 c
st 7 8.8c
at 10 10.9 c


Ramp up to 3 mil pound pa

you get 9.5 at PE 5
17.9 at Pe of 7
21.9 at Pe of 10


NOW

Using $74 U price

1.5 mil pound

Pe 5 MC $330
PE 7 = $462 mil
Pe 10 = $660 mil

Less debt $50

SP at 5 8.75 c 7 12.875c and 10 = 19 c

3 mil pound

PE 5 Sp 17.6 c
PE 7 Sp 26c
PE 10 Sp 38 c


Huge range - will be very interesting to see what happens

I feel its unlikely that the spot price will have any relevance to the DFS

Long term U is still in the high 60c's










3 mil pounds