AD8 0.13% $7.79 audinate group limited

Some numbers

  1. 36 Posts.
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    Hi guys, just thought I'd share some calculations and get some thoughts:

    In the Q3 report AD8 gave the following outlook: 26-31% revenue growth in USD

    In FY18 USD revenue was $15.2m USD. Using the above outlook this gives a FY19 revenue range of $19.15m to $19.91m USD. I'll use the midpoint of $19.53m. Given that H1FY19 revenue was $10.3m USD this mean they're predicting H2 revenue circa $9.23m USD.

    This will be the first HoH revenue decrease since listing, possibly longer.

    On a quarterly basis the outlook indicates that (given $6.6m AUD / $4.62m USD in Q3) in Q4 they expect $6.55m AUD / $4.58m USD.

    I can't find quarterly data pre-listing, but this will be the first post-listing Q4 with revenues less than Q3.

    I'm very bullish on the stock but hadn't got round to evaluating the above outlook. Why is H2 predicted to be weaker than H1? Is there a change in seasonality of revenue recognition? (H2s have always for AD8 been stronger than H1). Are manufacturers producing fewer products, or less of them, in anticipation of a global slowdown? Or because they've built up enough inventory? Are the new Dante-enabled products, for new and / or existing partners, lower in volume? Or coming in a later wave? (I.e. H1FY20).

    As I said, I'm very bullish on the stock and 30% USD revenue growth is brilliant, but I'm just curious to see what others think about AD8's upcoming Q4 and FY19 in general, which I'd regard as another strong success.

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