E25 2.00% 49.0¢ element 25 limited

SOME MANGANESE CONCENTRATE WORKINGS AND COMMENTS

  1. 15 Posts.
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    To: Phw and Resurgam and any other interested parties:

    1. I think E25 placed the JUPITER MINES link on Page 1 of the E25 Quarterly Report in order to at least provide any interested reader with some info on the potential mathematics, but I doubt many readers would have followed through on this.

    2. Firstly, let us recap a bit. The original plan for E25 was to produce TWO High Purity Manganese products. LOW volume but HIGH margin and Justin Brown has repeatedly mentioned 100,000 t / pa and revenue of over USD 200 Mil / annum. E25 own the in-situ resource which could produce for > 100 years so it would be HARD to imagine that the cost of production would be higher than say 50% of the total revenue. IF this was the case, then E25 would be looking at a gross profit of USD 100 Mill / annum, which would equate to gross earnings of over AUD 1.50 per E25 share and upon that scenario and a PER of say just 5:1, E25 shareholders would be looking at a share price of >A$ 7.00 / E25 share ! However, Phw is “spot on” as this will not eventuate due to the company being taken over by another larger company such as MINERAL RESOURCES for example and there is some history there with E25! This is the usual way with the explorer discovering the resource and upon them justifying the development, the bigger company steps in and offers shareholders a deal usually too good to refuse. This will undoubtedly be the exit strategy for the large and stable E25 top shareholders. I am sure that is the likely end event. Nevertheless, any takeover of E25 will most assuredly be for $ ‘s SUBJECT to the current E25 board FINALLY stepping up and proving the numbers.

    3. During the PFS studies, it became clear that along the processing chain it made sense to draw off a 33% Manganese Concentrate product which can be marketed and creating a relatively EARLY cash flow for E25 and involving a fairly low capex start-up to achieve this. So, this is the first PFS which should be released very soon and one which should finally awaken the market and make shareholders much happier.

    4. E25 have proven that they can produce a 33% Manganese Concentrate product for sale and that it makes sense to create that early cashflow to strengthen their balance sheet and to partly fund the larger and more expensive infrastructure to continue the Mn Concentrate material onwards through the leaching/electrowinning processes in order to produce Electrolytic Manganese Metal + High Purity Manganese Sulphate Monohydrate.

    5. Now, back to the production of a 33% grade of Manganese Concentrate and close study of the link provided by E25 in the quarterly report yesterday on Jupiter Mines. Here it is confirmed that the price of 37% Manganese Concentrate on 20 April was USD 4.62 / dmtu (dry metric tonne unit) which would equate in Jupiter receiving revenue of USD 170.94 /t FOB Port Elizabeth South Africa (= USD 4.62 * 37 = USD 170.94). Port Elizabeth in SA is precisely 925 Km distance from the Jupiter Mine at Sishen in the northern cape of SA and Jupiter currently export ~ 3.5 Mil tonnes / annum from Port Elizabeth. I have not and don’t intend to research how many or what size trucks they use to get their product to Port Elizabeth but I am sure it would be more of a problem for them than it would be for E25 who eventually will be exporting from Poet Hedland in WA (distance of 550 Km from Butcherbird)

    6. So, when considering this initial plan of E25 exporting a 33% Manganese Concentrate product, I have just applied a 20% discount to the USD 4.62 / dmtu price that Jupiter receive. Such applied discount to be conservative and due the lower grade of 33%. Accordingly, I have appropriated a price of USD 3.70 / dmtu for the E25 Manganese Concentrate (USD 3.70 / dmtu * 33 = USD 121.97 / say 0.65 Exchange Rate = AUD 187 / t FOB Perth/Port Hedland/Geraldton, take your pick!

    7. What would the E25 production be with this higher volume/lower margin product? Well, let us be tough and conservative and say it will be initially just 500,000 t/ annum. Jupiter Mines exported 1.5 Mil tonnes /pa back in 2016 (Now 3.5Mil tonnes pa)

    8. Estimating E25 production of 33% Manganese Concentrate at rate of 550,000 t / pa @ AUD 187 /t FOB and let us say the cost of production is an excessive 60% including freight

    9. Then we have the following: E25 Annual Revenue AUD 102,850,000 (550,000 x AUD 187 / t FOB)LESS Costs of 60% AUD 61,710,000 (AUD 187 X 60% = AUD 112.20 X 550,000) E25 Gross Profit AUD 41,140,000E25 Issued shares Let us say 92 MillionEBITDA AUD 0.447 / E25 sharePrice Earnings Ratio say 5:1Prospective E25 Share Price = AUD 2.24 / E25 share Prospective Take-Over Price = Much higher!!

    10.We will soon have an idea



 
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