It's difficult to tell what the effect will be on FY18. That said, I am pretty sure the brands that get turned down, or already know they aren't going to get approval, aren't going to then decide to ship extra stock to China - as a) retailers won't want the stock and b) the brand owner will also have to consider its marketing i.e spend just enough to get rid of this stock but not too much so as to waste money. Of course, if the stock is already in China when they get their CFDA application turned down they will obviously discount that stock to get rid of it.
More to the point I believe there is many brands that won't even bother applying for CFDA approval, as once they get a grip on the level of complexity and compliance required under the new regs, they simply won't bother knowing that their brand won't meet the standards. Those brands will already be discounting their China stock this year. Their may be a significant reduction of brands on shelves by Jan 1, 18 as a result.
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